NE
Noble Corporation plc Energy - Oil & Gas Drilling Investor Relations →
Noble Corporation plc (NE) closed at $44.26 as of 2026-09-18, trading 27.2% above its 200-week moving average of $34.80. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 30.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.77 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 227 weeks of data, NE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.8%.
With a market cap of $7.1 billion, NE is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.6%. Return on equity stands at 3.3%. The stock trades at 1.6x book value.
Share count has increased 17.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 4.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NE would have grown to $145, compared to $196 for the S&P 500. NE has returned 8.8% annualized vs 16.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 59.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying NE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.7% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +19.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +57.0% vs +42.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $29.19 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $33.03 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $38.04 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $44.84 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $54.59 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | $0.18 | $0.01 | -94.6% |
| 2026-04-26 | $0.21 | $0.26 | +26.2% |
| 2026-02-11 | $0.15 | $0.09 | -41.1% |
| 2025-10-27 | $0.30 | $0.19 | -35.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NE has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +6.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 7.1% | +37.4% | +97.0% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 6.0% | -7.8% | +49.7% |
| Oct 2024 | Jan 2026 | 66 | 45.2% | -9.1% | +53.5% |
| Average | 24 | — | +6.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Noble Corporation plc (NE) is currently 27.2% above its 200-week moving average of $34.80. It would need to fall to $34.80 to cross below the line.
What is NE's 200-week moving average price?
Noble Corporation plc's 200-week moving average is $34.80 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NE drops below its 200-week moving average?
NE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is NE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NE as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 46. Free cash flow yield is 3.6%. Return on equity is 3.3%. Price-to-book is 1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.4 years, $100 invested in NE would have grown to $145, compared to $196 for the S&P 500. That's 8.8% annualized vs 16.4% for the index. NE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NE pay a dividend?
Yes. Noble Corporation plc currently pays a dividend yield of 452.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18