NE
Noble Corporation plc Energy - Oil & Gas Drilling Investor Relations →
Noble Corporation plc (NE) closed at $42.40 as of 2026-07-31, trading 22.3% above its 200-week moving average of $34.66. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.91 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 220 weeks of data, NE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NE at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +6.8%.
With a market cap of $6.8 billion, NE is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.7%. Return on equity stands at 3.3%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Share count has increased 17.9% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 4.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NE would have grown to $138, compared to $192 for the S&P 500. NE has returned 7.8% annualized vs 16.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 59.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NE vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NE Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying NE when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.7% after 12 months (median +2.0%), compared to +19.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +81.0% vs +49.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NE crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NE would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NE's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $34.07 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $44.09 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $62.47 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $107.13 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $375.82 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NE's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NE has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +6.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 5 | 7.1% | +37.4% | +86.8% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 6.0% | -7.8% | +41.9% |
| Oct 2024 | Jan 2026 | 66 | 45.2% | -9.1% | +45.5% |
| Average | 24 | — | +6.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NE below its 200-week moving average?
No. Noble Corporation plc (NE) is currently 22.3% above its 200-week moving average of $34.66. It would need to fall to $34.66 to cross below the line.
What is NE's 200-week moving average price?
Noble Corporation plc's 200-week moving average is $34.66 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NE drops below its 200-week moving average?
NE has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +6.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is NE a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NE as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 38. Free cash flow yield is 3.7%. Return on equity is 3.3%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NE compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 4.2 years, $100 invested in NE would have grown to $138, compared to $192 for the S&P 500. That's 7.8% annualized vs 16.5% for the index. NE has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NE pay a dividend?
Yes. Noble Corporation plc currently pays a dividend yield of 483.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31