NDLS
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Noodles & Company (NDLS) closed at $13.57 as of 2026-09-18, trading 18.4% below its 200-week moving average of $16.64. This places NDLS in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -18.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (2.66 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 642 weeks of data, NDLS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 53 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.6%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $81 million, NDLS is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 22.2%, which is notably high. The stock trades at -1.6x book value.
Over the past 12.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NDLS would have grown to $5, compared to $477 for the S&P 500. NDLS has returned -21.5% annualized vs 13.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NDLS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NDLS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying NDLS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.0% after 12 months (median -19.0%), compared to +15.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 22% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -8.8% vs +33.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NDLS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NDLS would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NDLS's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $9.18 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $10.60 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $12.54 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $15.36 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $19.81 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.05 | $0.18 | +460.0% |
| 2026-05-06 | $-0.61 | $-0.44 | +27.9% |
| 2026-03-25 | $-0.72 | $-0.43 | +40.3% |
| 2025-11-05 | $-0.84 | $-0.80 | +4.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NDLS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NDLS has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2014 | Jun 2018 | 211 | 82.9% | -52.1% | -94.9% |
| Jul 2018 | Aug 2018 | 2 | 5.3% | -24.6% | -82.8% |
| Oct 2018 | May 2019 | 27 | 27.9% | -42.7% | -82.1% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 5 | 9.3% | -35.0% | -78.3% |
| Jul 2019 | Jan 2020 | 25 | 32.1% | -10.9% | -77.2% |
| Mar 2020 | Jul 2020 | 19 | 48.8% | +111.3% | -70.0% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 2 | 3.5% | +88.1% | -73.7% |
| Jan 2022 | Jan 2022 | 4 | 6.9% | -31.1% | -79.4% |
| Feb 2022 | Jul 2026 | 231 | 89.0% | -17.2% | -76.1% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 5+ | 18.5% | Ongoing | -9.7% |
| Average | 53 | — | +-1.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NDLS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Noodles & Company (NDLS) is trading 18.4% below its 200-week moving average of $16.64. The current price is $13.57.
What is NDLS's 200-week moving average price?
Noodles & Company's 200-week moving average is $16.64 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NDLS drops below its 200-week moving average?
NDLS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.6%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 53 weeks on average.
Is NDLS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NDLS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 22.2%. Price-to-book is -1.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NDLS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.3 years, $100 invested in NDLS would have grown to $5, compared to $477 for the S&P 500. That's -21.5% annualized vs 13.5% for the index. NDLS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18