NCMI
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National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) closed at $3.21 as of 2026-03-20, trading 36.9% below its 200-week moving average of $5.09. This places NCMI in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -36.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 23, NCMI is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.17 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 949 weeks of data, NCMI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -11.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $301 million, NCMI is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at -2.7%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
Share count has increased 627.0% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 18.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NCMI would have grown to $4, compared to $661 for the S&P 500. NCMI has returned -16.3% annualized vs 10.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NCMI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NCMI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying NCMI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -3.1% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +16.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -18.2% vs +34.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NCMI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NCMI has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +-11.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2008 | Mar 2010 | 112 | 72.9% | -56.0% | -95.7% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 2 | 3.7% | -9.4% | -94.8% |
| Jul 2011 | Feb 2012 | 31 | 20.3% | +8.1% | -94.7% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 3 | 3.3% | +35.1% | -94.3% |
| Oct 2012 | Nov 2012 | 4 | 6.0% | +33.3% | -94.7% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 3 | 0.5% | +41.2% | -94.8% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 2 | 2.1% | +19.5% | -95.3% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 7 | 4.7% | +19.6% | -95.5% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 1.2% | -39.3% | -95.8% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 3.3% | -45.0% | -95.9% |
| Feb 2017 | Sep 2018 | 84 | 57.7% | -42.8% | -95.8% |
| Oct 2018 | Aug 2019 | 46 | 34.1% | -2.6% | -95.1% |
| Nov 2019 | Jan 2020 | 9 | 15.5% | -70.0% | -94.5% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 2 | 2.7% | -46.5% | -94.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | 53 | 67.5% | -17.5% | -93.5% |
| Mar 2021 | Ongoing | 261+ | 96.5% | Ongoing | -91.4% |
| Average | 39 | — | +-11.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NCMI below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-03-20, National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) is trading 36.9% below its 200-week moving average of $5.09. The current price is $3.21.
What is NCMI's 200-week moving average price?
National CineMedia, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $5.09 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NCMI drops below its 200-week moving average?
NCMI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -11.5%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 39 weeks on average.
Is NCMI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NCMI as of 2026-03-20: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 23 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 7.4%. Return on equity is -2.7%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NCMI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 18.2 years, $100 invested in NCMI would have grown to $4, compared to $661 for the S&P 500. That's -16.3% annualized vs 10.9% for the index. NCMI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NCMI pay a dividend?
Yes. National CineMedia, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 374.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-03-20