NCMI
National CineMedia, Inc. Communication Services - Advertising Agencies Investor Relations →
National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) closed at $3.58 as of 2026-02-02, trading 35.9% below its 200-week moving average of $5.58. This places NCMI in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -36.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 28, NCMI is in oversold territory.
Over the past 943 weeks of data, NCMI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 39 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -11.5%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $336 million, NCMI is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 12.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at -4.1%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Share count has increased 1087.6% over three years, indicating dilution. This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 18.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NCMI would have grown to $4, compared to $702 for the S&P 500. NCMI has returned -15.9% annualized vs 11.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $2,480,627. Notably, these purchases occurred while NCMI is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: NCMI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NCMI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying NCMI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -3.1% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +16.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -18.2% vs +34.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NCMI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NCMI has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +-11.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2008 | Mar 2010 | 112 | 72.9% | -56.0% | -95.3% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 2 | 3.7% | -9.4% | -94.3% |
| Jul 2011 | Feb 2012 | 31 | 20.3% | +8.1% | -94.2% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 3 | 3.3% | +35.1% | -93.7% |
| Oct 2012 | Nov 2012 | 4 | 6.0% | +33.3% | -94.1% |
| Dec 2012 | Dec 2012 | 3 | 0.5% | +41.2% | -94.3% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 2 | 2.1% | +19.5% | -94.8% |
| Aug 2015 | Oct 2015 | 7 | 4.7% | +19.6% | -95.0% |
| May 2016 | May 2016 | 2 | 1.2% | -39.3% | -95.3% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 2 | 3.3% | -45.0% | -95.5% |
| Feb 2017 | Sep 2018 | 84 | 57.7% | -42.8% | -95.4% |
| Oct 2018 | Aug 2019 | 46 | 34.1% | -2.6% | -94.5% |
| Nov 2019 | Jan 2020 | 9 | 15.5% | -70.0% | -93.9% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 2 | 2.7% | -46.5% | -93.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2021 | 53 | 67.5% | -17.5% | -92.8% |
| Mar 2021 | Ongoing | 255+ | 96.5% | Ongoing | -90.5% |
| Average | 39 | — | +-11.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02