NCLH
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. Consumer Discretionary - Cruise Lines Investor Relations →
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) closed at $20.44 as of 2026-06-19, trading 7.8% above its 200-week moving average of $18.95. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 2.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.85 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 652 weeks of data, NCLH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 16 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NCLH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.0%.
With a market cap of $9.4 billion, NCLH is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 29.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.9x book value.
Share count has increased 8.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 12.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NCLH would have grown to $59, compared to $502 for the S&P 500. NCLH has returned -4.1% annualized vs 13.7% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 14 open-market purchases totaling $30,926,682. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NCLH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NCLH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying NCLH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +22.9% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +15.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 82% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -5.3% vs +32.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NCLH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. NCLH currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NCLH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NCLH has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +21.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2014 | May 2014 | 5 | 5.8% | +82.6% | -31.5% |
| Jun 2014 | Jun 2014 | 1 | 1.1% | +80.0% | -35.0% |
| Aug 2014 | Aug 2014 | 1 | 0.3% | +92.3% | -35.6% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 0.5% | +87.4% | -36.2% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 2 | 3.7% | +21.0% | -48.2% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 5 | 2.9% | +35.7% | -49.4% |
| Aug 2016 | Dec 2016 | 17 | 16.8% | +47.7% | -46.8% |
| Jun 2018 | Aug 2018 | 6 | 6.2% | +13.5% | -56.7% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 16 | 20.3% | -3.0% | -59.7% |
| Jul 2019 | Aug 2019 | 7 | 6.4% | -67.1% | -58.9% |
| Sep 2019 | Oct 2019 | 3 | 3.7% | -64.3% | -57.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Dec 2023 | 199 | 83.0% | -42.8% | -56.5% |
| Jan 2024 | Feb 2024 | 8 | 15.8% | +42.8% | +14.8% |
| Apr 2024 | Jul 2024 | 14 | 18.7% | -16.9% | +8.2% |
| Jul 2024 | Sep 2024 | 8 | 19.0% | +29.0% | +10.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2025 | 1 | 0.0% | -1.7% | +6.5% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 11 | 17.4% | +20.7% | +30.3% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 2 | 1.1% | N/A | +11.8% |
| Mar 2026 | Mar 2026 | 1 | 0.6% | N/A | +10.5% |
| Apr 2026 | Jun 2026 | 7 | 17.5% | N/A | +10.4% |
| Average | 16 | — | +21.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NCLH below its 200-week moving average?
No. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. (NCLH) is currently 7.8% above its 200-week moving average of $18.95. It would need to fall to $18.95 to cross below the line.
What is NCLH's 200-week moving average price?
Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $18.95 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NCLH drops below its 200-week moving average?
NCLH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 16 weeks on average.
Is NCLH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NCLH as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 29.5%. Price-to-book is 3.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NCLH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.6 years, $100 invested in NCLH would have grown to $59, compared to $502 for the S&P 500. That's -4.1% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. NCLH has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19