NBTB
NBT Bancorp Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) closed at $46.68 as of 2026-06-19, trading 21.6% above its 200-week moving average of $38.39. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.72 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1739 weeks of data, NBTB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NBTB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.7%.
With a market cap of $2.4 billion, NBTB is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.6%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
Share count has increased 21.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NBTB would have grown to $1712, compared to $3064 for the S&P 500. NBTB has returned 8.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $2,444,166.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NBTB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NBTB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 35 historical episodes, buying NBTB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.5% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +6.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.4% vs +21.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NBTB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NBTB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NBTB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $42.01 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $43.35 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $44.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $46.28 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $47.90 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NBTB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NBTB has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +12.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1999 | Jan 2001 | 58 | 39.4% | -0.4% | +655.9% |
| Mar 2001 | Jul 2001 | 17 | 5.9% | -2.1% | +602.8% |
| Sep 2001 | Apr 2002 | 31 | 17.0% | +16.9% | +581.2% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 20.5% | +10.9% | +307.4% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 1.1% | +24.3% | +307.8% |
| Oct 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 3.6% | +26.1% | +316.2% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 13.4% | +36.7% | +306.2% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 5 | 12.1% | +6.9% | +307.2% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 3.3% | +18.0% | +307.8% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 8.2% | +7.9% | +296.6% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 7 | 26.2% | -1.4% | +281.0% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 0.9% | +5.9% | +278.3% |
| Jun 2009 | Jun 2009 | 1 | 3.3% | +5.3% | +287.5% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 3 | 2.8% | -0.1% | +281.1% |
| Nov 2009 | Mar 2010 | 17 | 7.8% | +16.3% | +280.4% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 2 | 1.9% | +2.9% | +272.8% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 4.3% | +13.9% | +281.6% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 5.7% | -1.5% | +282.0% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 2 | 1.5% | -4.9% | +262.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 15.5% | +4.1% | +259.0% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 8.4% | -4.6% | +256.3% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 1 | 0.4% | +6.2% | +251.8% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 7 | 8.2% | +3.1% | +264.6% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 8 | 5.4% | +30.6% | +260.9% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 2 | 1.1% | +18.6% | +252.5% |
| May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 1.4% | +18.5% | +254.1% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 45 | 23.0% | +11.2% | +70.5% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 2.4% | +20.3% | +68.3% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 2 | 3.3% | +16.4% | +61.3% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 0.0% | +18.4% | +60.5% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 8 | 8.4% | +12.9% | +54.3% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 5 | 7.4% | +8.0% | +51.5% |
| Aug 2023 | Oct 2023 | 10 | 9.6% | +48.9% | +50.7% |
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2024 | 1 | 0.1% | +31.2% | +47.6% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 0.9% | +17.5% | +48.1% |
| Average | 8 | — | +12.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBTB below its 200-week moving average?
No. NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) is currently 21.6% above its 200-week moving average of $38.39. It would need to fall to $38.39 to cross below the line.
What is NBTB's 200-week moving average price?
NBT Bancorp Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $38.39 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NBTB drops below its 200-week moving average?
NBTB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is NBTB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NBTB as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Return on equity is 10.6%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NBTB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.4 years, $100 invested in NBTB would have grown to $1712, compared to $3064 for the S&P 500. That's 8.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NBTB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19