NBTB
NBT Bancorp Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) closed at $51.51 as of 2026-09-18, trading 31.9% above its 200-week moving average of $39.06. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 32.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 65, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1752 weeks of data, NBTB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NBTB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.7%.
With a market cap of $2.7 billion, NBTB is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 11.4%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Share count has increased 21.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NBTB would have grown to $1889, compared to $3133 for the S&P 500. NBTB has returned 9.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $2,444,166.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NBTB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NBTB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 35 historical episodes, buying NBTB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.5% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +6.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +19.4% vs +21.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NBTB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NBTB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NBTB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-26.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $48.79 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $50.71 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $52.79 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $55.05 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $57.50 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | $1.02 | $1.01 | -1.3% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.98 | $0.97 | -0.7% |
| 2026-01-26 | $0.99 | $1.05 | +6.6% |
| 2025-10-27 | $0.97 | $1.05 | +8.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NBTB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NBTB has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +12.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1999 | Jan 2001 | 58 | 39.5% | -0.4% | +740.7% |
| Mar 2001 | Jul 2001 | 17 | 6.0% | -2.1% | +681.6% |
| Sep 2001 | Apr 2002 | 31 | 17.0% | +16.9% | +657.6% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 3 | 20.5% | +10.9% | +353.0% |
| Sep 2007 | Sep 2007 | 1 | 1.2% | +24.3% | +353.5% |
| Oct 2007 | Oct 2007 | 1 | 3.7% | +26.1% | +362.9% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 13.4% | +36.7% | +351.7% |
| Feb 2008 | Mar 2008 | 5 | 12.1% | +6.9% | +352.8% |
| Apr 2008 | Apr 2008 | 1 | 3.3% | +18.0% | +353.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 8.2% | +7.9% | +341.1% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 7 | 26.2% | -1.4% | +323.7% |
| May 2009 | May 2009 | 1 | 0.9% | +5.9% | +320.7% |
| Jun 2009 | Jun 2009 | 1 | 3.3% | +5.3% | +330.9% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 3 | 2.8% | -0.1% | +323.9% |
| Nov 2009 | Mar 2010 | 17 | 7.0% | +16.3% | +323.0% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 2 | 2.0% | +2.9% | +314.7% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 4.3% | +13.9% | +324.4% |
| Aug 2010 | Sep 2010 | 5 | 5.8% | -1.5% | +324.8% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 2 | 1.6% | -3.9% | +303.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 11 | 15.5% | +4.1% | +299.2% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 2 | 8.4% | -4.6% | +296.3% |
| Apr 2012 | Apr 2012 | 1 | 0.5% | +6.2% | +291.3% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2012 | 7 | 7.3% | +3.1% | +305.5% |
| Nov 2012 | Dec 2012 | 8 | 5.5% | +30.6% | +301.4% |
| Apr 2013 | May 2013 | 2 | 1.2% | +18.6% | +292.1% |
| May 2013 | Jun 2013 | 1 | 0.5% | +18.4% | +290.0% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 45 | 23.0% | +11.1% | +88.2% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 2.5% | +20.3% | +87.2% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 2 | 3.3% | +16.4% | +79.4% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 0.1% | +18.4% | +78.5% |
| Mar 2023 | May 2023 | 8 | 8.4% | +12.9% | +71.6% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 5 | 7.4% | +8.0% | +68.5% |
| Aug 2023 | Oct 2023 | 10 | 9.7% | +48.9% | +67.6% |
| Mar 2024 | Mar 2024 | 1 | 0.2% | +31.2% | +64.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 1 | 1.0% | +17.5% | +64.7% |
| Average | 8 | — | +12.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBTB below its 200-week moving average?
No. NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) is currently 31.9% above its 200-week moving average of $39.06. It would need to fall to $39.06 to cross below the line.
What is NBTB's 200-week moving average price?
NBT Bancorp Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $39.06 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NBTB drops below its 200-week moving average?
NBTB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is NBTB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NBTB as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 65. Return on equity is 11.4%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NBTB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.7 years, $100 invested in NBTB would have grown to $1889, compared to $3133 for the S&P 500. That's 9.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. NBTB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NBTB pay a dividend?
Yes. NBT Bancorp Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 311.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18