NBTB

NBT Bancorp Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →

NO
7.2% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 9.3% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $37.98
14-Week RSI 39
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 2.1x — Surging
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 0.87

NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) closed at $40.71 as of 2026-03-20, trading 7.2% above its 200-week moving average of $37.98. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 9.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.

A big spike in selling this week — 2.1x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.

Over the past 1726 weeks of data, NBTB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NBTB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +12.7%.

With a market cap of $2.1 billion, NBTB is a mid-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 9.9%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.

Share count has increased 21.8% over three years, indicating dilution.

Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NBTB would have grown to $1481, compared to $2654 for the S&P 500. NBTB has returned 8.5% annualized vs 10.4% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 7 open-market purchases totaling $2,679,839.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 7.5% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: NBTB vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After NBTB Crosses Below the Line?

Across 35 historical episodes, buying NBTB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +13.5% after 12 months (median +12.0%), compared to +6.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 77% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +18.9% vs +21.1% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NBTB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Insider Buying Activity

2 conviction buys in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2026-01-28DELANEY TIMOTHY EDirector$976,70822,730+43.8%
2026-01-28DELANEY TIMOTHY EDirector$976,70822,730+43.8%

Historical Touches

NBTB has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +12.7% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Dec 1999Jan 20015839.4%-0.4%+554.0%
Mar 2001Jul 2001175.9%-2.1%+508.0%
Sep 2001Apr 20023117.0%+16.9%+489.3%
Jul 2007Aug 2007320.5%+10.9%+252.4%
Sep 2007Sep 200711.1%+24.3%+252.8%
Oct 2007Oct 200713.6%+26.1%+260.1%
Dec 2007Jan 2008413.4%+36.7%+251.4%
Feb 2008Mar 2008512.1%+6.9%+252.3%
Apr 2008Apr 200813.3%+18.0%+252.8%
Jun 2008Jul 200838.2%+7.9%+243.1%
Feb 2009Mar 2009726.2%-1.4%+229.6%
May 2009May 200910.9%+5.9%+227.3%
Jun 2009Jun 200913.3%+5.3%+235.2%
Jun 2009Jul 200932.8%-0.1%+229.7%
Nov 2009Mar 2010177.8%+16.3%+229.1%
May 2010Jun 201021.9%+2.9%+222.6%
Jun 2010Jul 201034.3%+13.9%+230.1%
Aug 2010Sep 201055.7%-1.5%+230.4%
May 2011Jun 201121.5%-4.9%+213.5%
Aug 2011Oct 20111115.5%+4.1%+210.6%
Nov 2011Nov 201128.4%-4.6%+208.3%
Apr 2012Apr 201210.4%+6.2%+204.4%
Apr 2012Jun 201278.2%+3.1%+215.4%
Nov 2012Dec 201285.4%+30.6%+212.2%
Apr 2013May 201321.1%+18.6%+205.0%
May 2013Jun 201311.4%+18.5%+206.4%
Feb 2020Jan 20214523.0%+11.2%+47.5%
Jan 2021Feb 202112.4%+20.3%+45.6%
Jul 2021Jul 202123.3%+16.4%+39.5%
Sep 2021Sep 202110.0%+18.4%+38.8%
Mar 2023May 202388.4%+12.9%+33.5%
Jun 2023Jul 202357.4%+8.0%+31.1%
Aug 2023Oct 2023109.6%+48.9%+30.4%
Mar 2024Mar 202410.1%+31.2%+27.7%
Apr 2024Apr 202410.9%+17.5%+28.1%
Average8+12.7%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is NBTB below its 200-week moving average?

No. NBT Bancorp Inc. (NBTB) is currently 7.2% above its 200-week moving average of $37.98. It would need to fall to $37.98 to cross below the line.

What is NBTB's 200-week moving average price?

NBT Bancorp Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $37.98 as of 2026-03-20. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when NBTB drops below its 200-week moving average?

NBTB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +12.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.

Is NBTB a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about NBTB as of 2026-03-20: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 39. Return on equity is 9.9%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does NBTB compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 33.2 years, $100 invested in NBTB would have grown to $1481, compared to $2654 for the S&P 500. That's 8.5% annualized vs 10.4% for the index. NBTB has underperformed the broader market over this period.

Does NBTB pay a dividend?

Yes. NBT Bancorp Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 356.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-03-20