NBIX
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) closed at $158.29 as of 2026-06-19, trading 27.3% above its 200-week moving average of $124.34. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 28.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, NBIX is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1521 weeks of data, NBIX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 26 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -3.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $15.9 billion, NBIX is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.7%. Return on equity stands at 22.5%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.7x book value.
Share count has increased 3.7% over three years, indicating dilution. NBIX passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NBIX would have grown to $2026, compared to $1541 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 10.8% vs 9.8% for the index — confirming NBIX as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 32.4% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NBIX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NBIX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying NBIX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.1% after 12 months (median +1.0%), compared to +12.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 59% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -18.5% vs +27.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NBIX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NBIX would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NBIX's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $110.83 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $120.43 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $131.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $145.64 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $162.68 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NBIX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NBIX has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +-3.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1997 | Sep 1997 | 20 | 20.7% | -2.4% | +1926.1% |
| Sep 1997 | Oct 1997 | 1 | 0.4% | -42.9% | +1544.6% |
| Oct 1997 | Nov 1999 | 106 | 51.0% | -27.6% | +1566.2% |
| Aug 2004 | Aug 2004 | 1 | 2.7% | +14.6% | +283.4% |
| Feb 2005 | Jul 2005 | 21 | 22.8% | +46.7% | +282.6% |
| Aug 2005 | Sep 2005 | 4 | 1.8% | -80.1% | +250.9% |
| Sep 2005 | Sep 2005 | 1 | 0.1% | -76.7% | +244.7% |
| May 2006 | Sep 2010 | 227 | 90.4% | -41.5% | +707.6% |
| May 2021 | May 2021 | 1 | 2.7% | -12.6% | +73.9% |
| May 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 0.1% | +1.2% | +67.7% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 11 | 7.6% | +0.2% | +66.6% |
| Nov 2021 | Apr 2022 | 22 | 23.3% | +30.7% | +69.8% |
| Apr 2022 | Jun 2022 | 9 | 18.7% | +11.3% | +69.1% |
| Jul 2022 | Aug 2022 | 4 | 2.5% | -1.6% | +65.6% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 3 | 6.0% | +45.3% | +65.2% |
| May 2023 | Jul 2023 | 12 | 9.7% | +44.5% | +62.5% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 18.0% | +37.6% | +65.5% |
| Average | 26 | — | +-3.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBIX below its 200-week moving average?
No. Neurocrine Biosciences Inc. (NBIX) is currently 27.3% above its 200-week moving average of $124.34. It would need to fall to $124.34 to cross below the line.
What is NBIX's 200-week moving average price?
Neurocrine Biosciences Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $124.34 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NBIX drops below its 200-week moving average?
NBIX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -3.1%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 26 weeks on average.
Is NBIX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NBIX as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 3.7%. Return on equity is 22.5%. Price-to-book is 4.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NBIX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.2 years, $100 invested in NBIX would have grown to $2026, compared to $1541 for the S&P 500. That's 10.8% annualized vs 9.8% for the index. NBIX has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19