NBHC
National Bank Holdings Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) closed at $40.97 as of 2026-09-18, trading 13.0% above its 200-week moving average of $36.24. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 15.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.08 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 682 weeks of data, NBHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NBHC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +16.6%.
With a market cap of $1825 million, NBHC is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 6.5%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Over the past 13.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NBHC would have grown to $272, compared to $582 for the S&P 500. NBHC has returned 7.9% annualized vs 14.3% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -13.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: NBHC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NBHC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying NBHC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +17.2% after 12 months (median +13.0%), compared to +15.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 86% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +37.6% vs +29.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NBHC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices NBHC would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where NBHC's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $40.88 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $42.38 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $44.00 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $45.75 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $47.64 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | $0.81 | $0.78 | -3.7% |
| 2026-04-21 | $0.65 | $0.72 | +10.8% |
| 2026-01-27 | $0.82 | $0.60 | -26.6% |
| 2025-10-21 | $0.85 | $0.92 | +8.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from NBHC's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
NBHC has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +16.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2014 | Feb 2014 | 3 | 0.9% | -3.7% | +177.2% |
| Apr 2014 | May 2014 | 3 | 2.4% | +0.3% | +178.2% |
| Sep 2014 | Oct 2014 | 5 | 4.9% | +5.7% | +172.8% |
| Nov 2014 | Dec 2014 | 4 | 1.6% | +20.1% | +173.4% |
| Jan 2015 | May 2015 | 18 | 5.8% | +8.3% | +177.6% |
| May 2015 | Jun 2015 | 1 | 0.0% | +12.8% | +173.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.2% | +64.2% | +171.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 28.7% | +30.0% | +59.9% |
| Mar 2023 | Nov 2023 | 37 | 17.3% | +2.4% | +32.5% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 7 | 4.3% | +28.3% | +28.7% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 5 | 5.2% | +2.3% | +28.3% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 7.8% | +19.3% | +25.4% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 5 | 2.2% | +18.8% | +17.6% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 2.1% | +23.6% | +18.2% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 5 | 2.2% | N/A | +15.9% |
| Average | 9 | — | +16.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is NBHC below its 200-week moving average?
No. National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) is currently 13.0% above its 200-week moving average of $36.24. It would need to fall to $36.24 to cross below the line.
What is NBHC's 200-week moving average price?
National Bank Holdings Corporation's 200-week moving average is $36.24 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when NBHC drops below its 200-week moving average?
NBHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +16.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 9 weeks on average.
Is NBHC a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about NBHC as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 42. Return on equity is 6.5%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does NBHC compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13.2 years, $100 invested in NBHC would have grown to $272, compared to $582 for the S&P 500. That's 7.9% annualized vs 14.3% for the index. NBHC has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does NBHC pay a dividend?
Yes. National Bank Holdings Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 312.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18