NBHC
National Bank Holdings Corporation Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
National Bank Holdings Corporation (NBHC) closed at $41.75 as of 2026-02-02, trading 15.6% above its 200-week moving average of $36.10. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 11.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, NBHC is in overbought territory.
Over the past 650 weeks of data, NBHC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 15 times. On average, these episodes lasted 9 weeks. Historically, investors who bought NBHC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.5%.
With a market cap of $1579 million, NBHC is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 8.1%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 27.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 12.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in NBHC would have grown to $272, compared to $524 for the S&P 500. NBHC has returned 8.3% annualized vs 14.1% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -12.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: NBHC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After NBHC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying NBHC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +16.4% after 12 months (median +11.0%), compared to +13.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 82% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.5% vs +27.6% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment NBHC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
NBHC has crossed below its 200-week MA 15 times with an average 1-year return of +15.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2014 | Feb 2014 | 3 | 0.9% | -3.7% | +175.9% |
| Apr 2014 | May 2014 | 3 | 2.4% | +0.3% | +177.0% |
| Sep 2014 | Oct 2014 | 5 | 4.9% | +5.7% | +171.6% |
| Nov 2014 | Dec 2014 | 4 | 1.5% | +20.1% | +172.9% |
| Jan 2015 | May 2015 | 18 | 5.8% | +8.3% | +176.4% |
| May 2015 | Jun 2015 | 1 | 0.3% | +12.8% | +173.0% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.2% | +64.2% | +170.7% |
| Feb 2020 | Nov 2020 | 37 | 28.6% | +30.1% | +60.2% |
| Mar 2023 | Nov 2023 | 37 | 17.3% | +2.4% | +31.9% |
| Jan 2024 | Mar 2024 | 7 | 5.0% | +28.3% | +28.2% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 5 | 5.1% | +2.3% | +27.8% |
| Mar 2025 | May 2025 | 5 | 7.8% | N/A | +24.9% |
| May 2025 | Jun 2025 | 5 | 2.1% | N/A | +17.0% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 2 | 2.0% | N/A | +17.6% |
| Oct 2025 | Nov 2025 | 5 | 2.1% | N/A | +15.4% |
| Average | 9 | — | +15.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02