MWA
Mueller Water Products, Inc. Industrials - Specialty Industrial Machinery Investor Relations →
Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) closed at $21.90 as of 2026-09-18, trading 9.6% above its 200-week moving average of $19.98. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 20.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 31, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.6x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1012 weeks of data, MWA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MWA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.4%.
With a market cap of $3.4 billion, MWA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.8%. Return on equity stands at 21.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.0x book value.
MWA passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 19.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MWA would have grown to $184, compared to $733 for the S&P 500. MWA has returned 3.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $854,441.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MWA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MWA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying MWA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.2% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +18.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.8% vs +32.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MWA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MWA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MWA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.43 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $23.37 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $24.40 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $25.51 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $26.74 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $0.39 | $0.50 | +27.4% |
| 2026-05-05 | $0.37 | $0.40 | +7.5% |
| 2026-02-04 | $0.26 | $0.29 | +10.1% |
| 2025-11-06 | $0.34 | $0.38 | +12.3% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MWA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MWA has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +18.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2007 | Jul 2012 | 262 | 82.8% | -36.6% | +102.6% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 5 | 5.8% | +3.7% | +143.7% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 4 | 2.3% | +8.4% | +136.3% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 12 | 15.4% | +6.6% | +138.2% |
| Feb 2019 | Apr 2019 | 6 | 6.5% | +5.9% | +134.2% |
| May 2019 | Sep 2019 | 18 | 13.3% | -1.3% | +166.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 23 | 33.7% | +20.1% | +121.2% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | 3.3% | +55.4% | +131.7% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 2.7% | +61.0% | +131.3% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 3.0% | +43.9% | +110.0% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 12 | 12.4% | +30.9% | +110.3% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 5 | 6.6% | +22.5% | +102.0% |
| Average | 29 | — | +18.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MWA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) is currently 9.6% above its 200-week moving average of $19.98. It would need to fall to $19.98 to cross below the line.
What is MWA's 200-week moving average price?
Mueller Water Products, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $19.98 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MWA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MWA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is MWA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MWA as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 31. Free cash flow yield is 3.8%. Return on equity is 21.7%. Price-to-book is 3.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MWA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 19.5 years, $100 invested in MWA would have grown to $184, compared to $733 for the S&P 500. That's 3.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MWA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MWA pay a dividend?
Yes. Mueller Water Products, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 128.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18