MWA
Mueller Water Products, Inc. Industrials - Specialty Industrial Machinery Investor Relations →
Mueller Water Products, Inc. (MWA) closed at $29.18 as of 2026-02-02, trading 65.3% above its 200-week moving average of $17.65. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 54.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 980 weeks of data, MWA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 12 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MWA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.4%.
With a market cap of $4.6 billion, MWA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.3%. Return on equity stands at 21.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 4.5x book value.
MWA passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 18.9 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MWA would have grown to $243, compared to $660 for the S&P 500. MWA has returned 4.8% annualized vs 10.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: MWA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MWA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 12 historical episodes, buying MWA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.2% after 12 months (median +20.0%), compared to +18.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 92% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +28.8% vs +32.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MWA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MWA has crossed below its 200-week MA 12 times with an average 1-year return of +18.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2007 | Jul 2012 | 262 | 82.8% | -36.6% | +167.9% |
| Apr 2018 | May 2018 | 5 | 5.8% | +3.7% | +222.2% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2018 | 4 | 2.3% | +8.4% | +212.5% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2019 | 12 | 15.4% | +6.6% | +215.0% |
| Feb 2019 | Apr 2019 | 6 | 6.5% | +5.9% | +209.6% |
| May 2019 | Sep 2019 | 18 | 13.7% | -1.3% | +253.9% |
| Feb 2020 | Aug 2020 | 23 | 33.7% | +20.1% | +192.5% |
| Sep 2020 | Oct 2020 | 2 | 3.2% | +55.4% | +206.4% |
| Oct 2020 | Nov 2020 | 1 | 2.6% | +61.0% | +205.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 3.0% | +43.9% | +177.7% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 12 | 12.3% | +30.9% | +178.1% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 5 | 6.6% | +22.5% | +167.2% |
| Average | 29 | — | +18.4% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02