MUSA
Murphy USA Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) closed at $607.76 as of 2026-07-31, trading 50.4% above its 200-week moving average of $404.13. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 52.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.0x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 627 weeks of data, MUSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 3 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MUSA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +45.0%.
With a market cap of $11.2 billion, MUSA is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.5%. Return on equity stands at 80.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 17.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 12.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MUSA would have grown to $1287, compared to $473 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 23.5% vs 13.7% for the index — confirming MUSA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -18.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MUSA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MUSA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying MUSA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +39.0% after 12 months (median +50.0%), compared to +12.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.5% vs +22.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MUSA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MUSA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MUSA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $469.67 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $501.02 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $536.85 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $578.21 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $626.46 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MUSA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MUSA has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +45.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 5 | 6.1% | +59.2% | +1159.2% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | 3.3% | +30.9% | +881.0% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 0.5% | N/A | +70.9% |
| Average | 3 | — | +45.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MUSA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) is currently 50.4% above its 200-week moving average of $404.13. It would need to fall to $404.13 to cross below the line.
What is MUSA's 200-week moving average price?
Murphy USA Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $404.13 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MUSA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MUSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +45.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 3 weeks on average.
Is MUSA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MUSA as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 3.5%. Return on equity is 80.3%. Price-to-book is 17.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MUSA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.1 years, $100 invested in MUSA would have grown to $1287, compared to $473 for the S&P 500. That's 23.5% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. MUSA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MUSA pay a dividend?
Yes. Murphy USA Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 39.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31