MUSA
Murphy USA Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) closed at $526.09 as of 2026-09-18, trading 27.6% above its 200-week moving average of $412.32. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 27.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 39, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 634 weeks of data, MUSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 3 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MUSA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +45.0%.
With a market cap of $9.7 billion, MUSA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.0%. Return on equity stands at 86.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 12.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.6% over the past three years.
Over the past 12.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MUSA would have grown to $1116, compared to $484 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 21.8% vs 13.7% for the index — confirming MUSA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -18.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MUSA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MUSA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying MUSA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +39.0% after 12 months (median +50.0%), compared to +12.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.5% vs +22.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MUSA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MUSA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MUSA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $495.67 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $537.17 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $586.24 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $645.18 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $717.30 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $10.02 | $11.24 | +12.2% |
| 2026-04-29 | $5.50 | $7.28 | +32.3% |
| 2026-02-04 | $6.90 | $7.88 | +14.2% |
| 2025-10-29 | $6.95 | $6.76 | -2.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MUSA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MUSA has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +45.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 5 | 6.1% | +59.2% | +991.3% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | 3.3% | +30.9% | +750.2% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 0.5% | N/A | +48.1% |
| Average | 3 | — | +45.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MUSA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) is currently 27.6% above its 200-week moving average of $412.32. It would need to fall to $412.32 to cross below the line.
What is MUSA's 200-week moving average price?
Murphy USA Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $412.32 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MUSA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MUSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +45.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 3 weeks on average.
Is MUSA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MUSA as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 39. Free cash flow yield is 4.0%. Return on equity is 86.4%. Price-to-book is 12.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MUSA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 12.2 years, $100 invested in MUSA would have grown to $1116, compared to $484 for the S&P 500. That's 21.8% annualized vs 13.7% for the index. MUSA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MUSA pay a dividend?
Yes. Murphy USA Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 50.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18