MUSA
Murphy USA Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Specialty Retail Investor Relations →
Murphy USA Inc. (MUSA) closed at $377.89 as of 2026-02-02, trading 1.7% above its 200-week moving average of $371.58. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 13.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 602 weeks of data, MUSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 3 times. On average, these episodes lasted 3 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MUSA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +45.0%.
With a market cap of $7.1 billion, MUSA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 3.1%. Return on equity stands at 64.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 11.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 19.7% over the past three years.
Over the past 11.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MUSA would have grown to $798, compared to $435 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 19.5% vs 13.4% for the index — confirming MUSA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -5.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: MUSA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MUSA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 3 historical episodes, buying MUSA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +39.0% after 12 months (median +50.0%), compared to +12.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +43.5% vs +22.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MUSA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MUSA has crossed below its 200-week MA 3 times with an average 1-year return of +45.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2015 | Sep 2015 | 5 | 6.1% | +59.2% | +680.8% |
| Apr 2018 | Apr 2018 | 3 | 3.3% | +30.9% | +508.3% |
| Nov 2025 | Nov 2025 | 1 | 0.7% | N/A | +6.2% |
| Average | 3 | — | +45.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02