MUR
Murphy Oil Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) closed at $34.29 as of 2026-06-19, trading 3.0% above its 200-week moving average of $33.29. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 16.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2365 weeks of data, MUR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MUR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.3%.
With a market cap of $4.9 billion, MUR is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.5%. Return on equity stands at 2.2%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MUR would have grown to $1262, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. MUR has returned 7.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -42.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MUR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MUR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 31 historical episodes, buying MUR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.8% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +11.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 72% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +26.7% vs +30.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MUR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MUR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MUR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $32.98 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $36.88 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $41.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $48.33 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $57.21 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MUR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MUR has crossed below its 200-week MA 42 times with an average 1-year return of +10.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Jun 1983 | 121 | 50.9% | -46.6% | +1494.7% |
| Jul 1983 | Jul 1983 | 1 | 0.9% | +1.4% | +1914.8% |
| Dec 1983 | Jan 1984 | 7 | 9.3% | -3.8% | +1960.1% |
| Jul 1984 | Aug 1984 | 6 | 13.8% | -5.1% | +1887.9% |
| Oct 1984 | Oct 1984 | 1 | 2.1% | +13.2% | +2011.1% |
| Nov 1984 | Jan 1985 | 9 | 14.5% | +21.7% | +2030.9% |
| Jun 1985 | Jun 1985 | 2 | 1.2% | -8.4% | +2054.2% |
| Jan 1986 | Jan 1987 | 49 | 22.5% | +26.0% | +2155.7% |
| Oct 1987 | Jan 1988 | 14 | 22.9% | +18.1% | +1845.4% |
| Feb 1988 | Mar 1988 | 1 | 0.5% | +40.1% | +1845.5% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 2.5% | +9.9% | +1349.0% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 2 | 3.4% | +9.9% | +1293.6% |
| Nov 1991 | Jan 1992 | 10 | 7.0% | +4.5% | +1263.6% |
| Feb 1992 | Apr 1992 | 9 | 7.2% | +9.4% | +1252.0% |
| Jun 1992 | Aug 1992 | 7 | 4.3% | +17.1% | +1210.7% |
| Oct 1992 | Oct 1992 | 2 | 2.4% | +39.8% | +1213.8% |
| Nov 1992 | Jan 1993 | 12 | 6.8% | +27.0% | +1204.4% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 3 | 2.2% | +36.8% | +1015.5% |
| Aug 1998 | Nov 1998 | 14 | 12.2% | +23.9% | +723.8% |
| Nov 1998 | Mar 1999 | 17 | 18.7% | +47.4% | +764.3% |
| Sep 2008 | May 2009 | 34 | 32.7% | +4.3% | +32.4% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 5 | 11.2% | +3.2% | +28.8% |
| Aug 2009 | Aug 2009 | 1 | 0.3% | -0.3% | +23.1% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 1 | 1.2% | +3.0% | +23.6% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 4.1% | +7.7% | +22.3% |
| Nov 2009 | Apr 2010 | 20 | 13.2% | +19.4% | +23.0% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 19 | 17.2% | +32.6% | +32.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 23 | 26.8% | +2.1% | +23.9% |
| Mar 2012 | Jul 2012 | 19 | 19.2% | +15.4% | +17.8% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 4 | 6.1% | +33.9% | +22.2% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 1 | 2.2% | +41.0% | +24.0% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 0.4% | -41.9% | +2.4% |
| Nov 2014 | Jan 2018 | 163 | 65.3% | -39.1% | +8.2% |
| Jan 2018 | May 2018 | 17 | 21.5% | -1.9% | +56.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 9 | 16.8% | -5.2% | +62.4% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | 1.2% | -58.7% | +68.8% |
| May 2019 | Dec 2019 | 30 | 30.5% | -49.7% | +71.6% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2021 | 70 | 78.2% | -39.3% | +69.3% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 1 | 3.3% | +44.3% | +101.8% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 5.6% | +90.5% | +107.1% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 1.8% | +102.4% | +99.5% |
| Oct 2024 | Feb 2026 | 69 | 39.0% | -11.3% | +12.4% |
| Average | 19 | — | +10.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MUR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) is currently 3.0% above its 200-week moving average of $33.29. It would need to fall to $33.29 to cross below the line.
What is MUR's 200-week moving average price?
Murphy Oil Corporation's 200-week moving average is $33.29 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MUR drops below its 200-week moving average?
MUR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is MUR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MUR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 4.5%. Return on equity is 2.2%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MUR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MUR would have grown to $1262, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 7.9% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MUR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19