MUR
Murphy Oil Corporation Energy - Oil & Gas E&P Investor Relations →
Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) closed at $37.39 as of 2026-09-18, trading 13.6% above its 200-week moving average of $32.92. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 16.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.84 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, MUR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MUR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.7%.
With a market cap of $5.4 billion, MUR is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 6.4%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 6.5%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MUR would have grown to $1390, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MUR has returned 8.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -42.9% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MUR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MUR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 31 historical episodes, buying MUR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.6% after 12 months (median +17.0%), compared to +10.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.5% vs +30.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MUR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MUR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MUR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $27.23 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $29.72 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $32.70 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $36.36 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $40.93 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $1.58 | $1.55 | -2.2% |
| 2026-05-06 | $0.31 | $0.32 | +3.4% |
| 2026-01-28 | $-0.03 | $0.14 | +523.5% |
| 2025-11-05 | $0.18 | $0.41 | +131.9% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MUR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MUR has crossed below its 200-week MA 43 times with an average 1-year return of +9.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1981 | Jun 1983 | 121 | 50.9% | -46.6% | +1656.7% |
| Jul 1983 | Jul 1983 | 1 | 0.9% | +1.4% | +2119.4% |
| Dec 1983 | Jan 1984 | 7 | 9.3% | -3.8% | +2169.4% |
| Jul 1984 | Aug 1984 | 6 | 13.8% | -5.1% | +2089.8% |
| Oct 1984 | Oct 1984 | 1 | 2.1% | +13.2% | +2225.5% |
| Nov 1984 | Jan 1985 | 9 | 14.5% | +21.7% | +2247.3% |
| Jun 1985 | Jun 1985 | 2 | 1.2% | -8.4% | +2272.9% |
| Jan 1986 | Jan 1987 | 49 | 22.5% | +26.0% | +2384.8% |
| Oct 1987 | Jan 1988 | 14 | 23.0% | +18.1% | +2042.9% |
| Feb 1988 | Mar 1988 | 1 | 0.5% | +40.1% | +2043.1% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 2.5% | +9.9% | +1496.2% |
| Sep 1991 | Oct 1991 | 2 | 3.5% | +9.9% | +1435.2% |
| Nov 1991 | Jan 1992 | 9 | 7.1% | +7.2% | +1405.5% |
| Feb 1992 | Apr 1992 | 9 | 7.3% | +9.3% | +1376.6% |
| Jun 1992 | Aug 1992 | 7 | 4.3% | +17.1% | +1343.8% |
| Oct 1992 | Oct 1992 | 2 | 2.4% | +39.8% | +1347.2% |
| Nov 1992 | Jan 1993 | 12 | 6.9% | +27.0% | +1336.9% |
| Oct 1995 | Nov 1995 | 3 | 2.3% | +36.8% | +1128.8% |
| Aug 1998 | Mar 1999 | 32 | 18.8% | +28.8% | +816.3% |
| Sep 2008 | May 2009 | 34 | 32.7% | +4.3% | +45.8% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 5 | 11.2% | +3.2% | +41.9% |
| Aug 2009 | Aug 2009 | 1 | 0.3% | -0.3% | +35.6% |
| Aug 2009 | Sep 2009 | 1 | 1.3% | +3.0% | +36.2% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 2 | 4.2% | +7.7% | +34.7% |
| Nov 2009 | Apr 2010 | 20 | 13.2% | +19.4% | +35.5% |
| May 2010 | Sep 2010 | 19 | 17.2% | +32.6% | +46.0% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 23 | 26.8% | +2.1% | +36.4% |
| Mar 2012 | Jul 2012 | 19 | 19.2% | +15.4% | +29.8% |
| Aug 2012 | Sep 2012 | 3 | 6.1% | +35.6% | +39.1% |
| Sep 2012 | Oct 2012 | 1 | 2.3% | +41.0% | +36.6% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 0.4% | -41.9% | +12.8% |
| Nov 2014 | Jan 2018 | 163 | 65.3% | -39.1% | +19.2% |
| Jan 2018 | May 2018 | 17 | 21.5% | -1.9% | +72.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Feb 2019 | 9 | 16.9% | -5.2% | +78.9% |
| Apr 2019 | May 2019 | 1 | 1.2% | -58.7% | +86.0% |
| May 2019 | Dec 2019 | 30 | 30.5% | -49.7% | +89.0% |
| Jan 2020 | May 2021 | 70 | 78.2% | -39.3% | +86.5% |
| Jul 2021 | Jul 2021 | 1 | 3.3% | +44.3% | +122.3% |
| Aug 2021 | Aug 2021 | 1 | 5.6% | +90.5% | +128.1% |
| Sep 2021 | Sep 2021 | 1 | 1.8% | +102.4% | +119.7% |
| Oct 2024 | Feb 2026 | 69 | 39.0% | -11.3% | +23.8% |
| Jun 2026 | Jul 2026 | 1 | 4.3% | N/A | +18.5% |
| Aug 2026 | Aug 2026 | 1 | 0.0% | N/A | +13.2% |
| Average | 18 | — | +9.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MUR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Murphy Oil Corporation (MUR) is currently 13.6% above its 200-week moving average of $32.92. It would need to fall to $32.92 to cross below the line.
What is MUR's 200-week moving average price?
Murphy Oil Corporation's 200-week moving average is $32.92 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MUR drops below its 200-week moving average?
MUR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 43 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +9.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is MUR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MUR as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Free cash flow yield is 6.4%. Return on equity is 6.5%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MUR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MUR would have grown to $1390, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 8.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MUR has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MUR pay a dividend?
Yes. Murphy Oil Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 374.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18