MTZ
MasTec, Inc. Industrials - Infrastructure Construction Investor Relations →
MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) closed at $379.66 as of 2026-06-19, trading 167.1% above its 200-week moving average of $142.14. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 158.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 72, MTZ is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2734 weeks of data, MTZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 38 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTZ at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +33.7%.
With a market cap of $30.0 billion, MTZ is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.0%. Return on equity stands at 15.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 8.9x book value.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTZ would have grown to $26284, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MTZ as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 47.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MTZ vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTZ Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying MTZ when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +48.8% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +14.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 65% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +62.0% vs +24.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTZ crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MTZ would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MTZ's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-30.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $309.61 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $358.43 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $425.51 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $523.49 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $680.09 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MTZ's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MTZ has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +33.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Apr 1978 | 218 | 85.9% | -73.7% | +4280.7% |
| Oct 1978 | Jan 1979 | 10 | 24.0% | +73.3% | +22679.6% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 3 | 7.6% | -10.8% | +9135.0% |
| Aug 1982 | Aug 1982 | 3 | 8.3% | -7.8% | +8775.2% |
| Sep 1982 | Oct 1982 | 4 | 5.9% | -30.6% | +7939.9% |
| Nov 1982 | Mar 1986 | 172 | 56.6% | -36.9% | +8035.6% |
| Mar 1986 | Jun 1987 | 66 | 47.9% | -34.5% | +12325.2% |
| Oct 1987 | Nov 1987 | 2 | 15.7% | +211.6% | +15792.7% |
| Jul 1990 | Dec 1993 | 181 | 84.5% | -7.2% | +9804.2% |
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 9 | 35.1% | +63.2% | +2978.3% |
| Nov 1998 | Nov 1998 | 2 | 3.5% | +66.5% | +2603.8% |
| Dec 1998 | Jan 1999 | 2 | 6.0% | +104.7% | +2595.8% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 6 | 7.3% | +212.2% | +2541.1% |
| Dec 2000 | Dec 2003 | 157 | 92.5% | -68.1% | +1891.7% |
| Jan 2004 | Nov 2004 | 42 | 62.6% | -29.5% | +2922.8% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 2 | 4.3% | +80.1% | +5262.4% |
| Nov 2007 | May 2008 | 28 | 27.8% | -10.1% | +3802.0% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 8.8% | +14.6% | +3778.0% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 12 | 44.5% | +20.7% | +3742.7% |
| Jan 2009 | Mar 2009 | 9 | 17.1% | +23.7% | +3550.6% |
| Jun 2009 | Sep 2009 | 10 | 17.9% | -13.1% | +3283.8% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.8% | -10.1% | +3212.9% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 1 | 6.4% | +93.3% | +3405.6% |
| May 2010 | Oct 2010 | 19 | 16.0% | +78.0% | +3448.2% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 1.8% | -23.2% | +1437.1% |
| Nov 2014 | Aug 2016 | 90 | 47.8% | -33.1% | +1410.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Oct 2020 | 31 | 41.1% | +247.1% | +1232.1% |
| Sep 2022 | Oct 2022 | 3 | 6.8% | +13.3% | +497.9% |
| Sep 2023 | Feb 2024 | 23 | 37.3% | +64.7% | +395.6% |
| Average | 38 | — | +33.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTZ below its 200-week moving average?
No. MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) is currently 167.1% above its 200-week moving average of $142.14. It would need to fall to $142.14 to cross below the line.
What is MTZ's 200-week moving average price?
MasTec, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $142.14 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MTZ drops below its 200-week moving average?
MTZ has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +33.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 38 weeks on average.
Is MTZ a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MTZ as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 72 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 0.0%. Return on equity is 15.0%. Price-to-book is 8.9x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MTZ compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MTZ would have grown to $26284, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 18.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MTZ has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19