MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Resorts & Casinos Investor Relations →
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) closed at $139.80 as of 2026-09-18, trading 15.9% below its 200-week moving average of $166.19. This places MTN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -15.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1497 weeks of data, MTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 31 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.5%.
With a market cap of $5.0 billion, MTN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 16.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 9.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTN would have grown to $796, compared to $1269 for the S&P 500. MTN has returned 7.5% annualized vs 9.2% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $5,000,477. Notably, these purchases occurred while MTN is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -14.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MTN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying MTN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.5% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.5% vs +30.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MTN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MTN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-09-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $112.48 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $121.58 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $132.30 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $145.08 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $160.59 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-08 | $8.96 | $8.81 | -1.6% |
| 2026-03-09 | $6.15 | $5.87 | -4.6% |
| 2025-12-10 | $-5.13 | $-5.20 | -1.3% |
| 2025-09-29 | $-4.72 | $-5.08 | -7.7% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MTN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MTN has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +2.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 9 | 28.6% | -26.6% | +774.4% |
| Nov 1998 | Nov 2000 | 105 | 39.9% | -20.4% | +735.2% |
| Feb 2001 | Mar 2002 | 56 | 38.9% | -9.3% | +915.7% |
| Apr 2002 | Dec 2003 | 85 | 39.3% | -38.2% | +970.7% |
| Dec 2003 | Jan 2004 | 2 | 1.0% | +35.6% | +1129.3% |
| Feb 2004 | Jun 2004 | 16 | 16.6% | +45.2% | +1134.4% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 8.3% | -30.0% | +478.1% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 79 | 60.5% | -2.3% | +471.3% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 24 | 17.5% | +13.4% | +423.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 7 | 10.6% | +48.4% | +501.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 23 | 35.1% | +58.9% | -10.9% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 3.4% | +1.4% | -29.3% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | -0.5% | -30.1% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 2 | 5.6% | +3.5% | -27.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2022 | 22 | 14.7% | +13.4% | -24.7% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 2 | 1.8% | -4.3% | -30.9% |
| Feb 2023 | Apr 2023 | 8 | 10.3% | -3.8% | -31.6% |
| Apr 2023 | Jun 2023 | 9 | 2.8% | -14.4% | -31.4% |
| Jul 2023 | Sep 2023 | 7 | 9.3% | -22.0% | -32.1% |
| Sep 2023 | Ongoing | 156+ | 35.3% | Ongoing | -26.3% |
| Average | 31 | — | +2.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) is trading 15.9% below its 200-week moving average of $166.19. The current price is $139.80.
What is MTN's 200-week moving average price?
Vail Resorts, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $166.19 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MTN drops below its 200-week moving average?
MTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 31 weeks on average.
Is MTN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MTN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 57. Free cash flow yield is 2.7%. Return on equity is 16.9%. Price-to-book is 9.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MTN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 28.8 years, $100 invested in MTN would have grown to $796, compared to $1269 for the S&P 500. That's 7.5% annualized vs 9.2% for the index. MTN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MTN pay a dividend?
Yes. Vail Resorts, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 645.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18