MTN
Vail Resorts, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Resorts & Casinos Investor Relations →
Vail Resorts, Inc. (MTN) closed at $138.64 as of 2026-02-02, trading 23.4% below its 200-week moving average of $180.88. This places MTN in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -26.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 46, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1465 weeks of data, MTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.5%.
With a market cap of $5.0 billion, MTN is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.0%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 46.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 31.9x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.9% over the past three years.
Over the past 28.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTN would have grown to $764, compared to $1142 for the S&P 500. MTN has returned 7.5% annualized vs 9.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -14.8% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: MTN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 20 historical episodes, buying MTN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.5% after 12 months (median +0.0%), compared to +14.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 45% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +7.3% vs +30.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MTN has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +2.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1998 | Oct 1998 | 9 | 28.6% | -26.6% | +739.4% |
| Nov 1998 | Nov 2000 | 105 | 39.9% | -20.4% | +701.8% |
| Feb 2001 | Mar 2002 | 56 | 38.9% | -9.3% | +875.1% |
| Apr 2002 | Dec 2003 | 85 | 39.3% | -38.2% | +927.9% |
| Dec 2003 | Jan 2004 | 2 | 1.0% | +35.6% | +1080.2% |
| Feb 2004 | Jun 2004 | 16 | 16.6% | +45.2% | +1085.1% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2008 | 3 | 8.3% | -30.0% | +455.0% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2010 | 79 | 60.5% | -2.3% | +448.5% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 24 | 17.5% | +13.4% | +402.5% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 7 | 10.6% | +48.4% | +477.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Aug 2020 | 23 | 35.1% | +58.9% | -14.5% |
| Feb 2022 | Mar 2022 | 2 | 3.3% | +1.4% | -32.2% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2022 | 1 | 1.6% | -0.5% | -32.9% |
| May 2022 | May 2022 | 2 | 5.6% | +3.5% | -30.8% |
| Jun 2022 | Nov 2022 | 22 | 14.7% | +13.4% | -27.7% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 2 | 1.8% | -4.4% | -33.1% |
| Feb 2023 | Apr 2023 | 8 | 10.4% | -3.8% | -34.3% |
| Apr 2023 | Jun 2023 | 9 | 2.8% | -14.4% | -34.2% |
| Jul 2023 | Sep 2023 | 7 | 9.2% | -22.0% | -34.8% |
| Sep 2023 | Ongoing | 124+ | 35.2% | Ongoing | -29.2% |
| Average | 29 | — | +2.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02