MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) closed at $75.73 as of 2026-06-19, trading 12.2% above its 200-week moving average of $67.52. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 9.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.81 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1929 weeks of data, MTH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.1%.
With a market cap of $5.1 billion, MTH is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.7%. Return on equity stands at 7.5%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTH would have grown to $11368, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MTH as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -37.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MTH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying MTH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +47.5% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +14.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +116.8% vs +25.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MTH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MTH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $59.07 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $61.56 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $64.26 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $67.21 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $70.45 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MTH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MTH has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +51.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1989 | Dec 1990 | 78 | 57.4% | -12.7% | +9835.2% |
| Jul 1992 | Jan 1996 | 182 | 78.4% | -60.0% | +5962.7% |
| Feb 1996 | Mar 1996 | 2 | 1.1% | +12.9% | +12327.1% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 3 | 4.4% | +21.5% | +13283.0% |
| May 1997 | May 1997 | 1 | 2.3% | +301.8% | +13887.6% |
| Oct 1999 | May 2000 | 29 | 20.2% | +82.6% | +5910.7% |
| May 2000 | Jul 2000 | 8 | 8.7% | +300.0% | +6017.4% |
| Jul 2006 | Oct 2006 | 13 | 18.7% | -33.6% | +316.9% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2006 | 4 | 5.2% | -61.2% | +275.5% |
| Dec 2006 | Apr 2010 | 174 | 84.4% | -61.6% | +250.8% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 26 | 28.6% | +5.1% | +659.1% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 5.8% | -0.2% | +736.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 13 | 19.2% | +108.4% | +832.1% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 0.7% | +90.0% | +759.7% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 1.5% | +17.9% | +377.6% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 4.9% | +1.1% | +386.1% |
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 2 | 6.4% | -14.7% | +377.5% |
| Sep 2015 | May 2017 | 87 | 30.0% | -10.8% | +315.2% |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 2019 | 18 | 18.0% | +73.2% | +304.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 32.4% | +181.2% | +416.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 13.3% | +98.6% | +145.5% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 15.9% | +83.8% | +109.3% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 4 | 11.8% | N/A | +21.8% |
| Apr 2026 | Jun 2026 | 5 | 12.0% | N/A | +14.9% |
| Average | 28 | — | +51.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTH below its 200-week moving average?
No. Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is currently 12.2% above its 200-week moving average of $67.52. It would need to fall to $67.52 to cross below the line.
What is MTH's 200-week moving average price?
Meritage Homes Corporation's 200-week moving average is $67.52 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MTH drops below its 200-week moving average?
MTH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +51.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 28 weeks on average.
Is MTH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MTH as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 2.7%. Return on equity is 7.5%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MTH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MTH would have grown to $11368, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 15.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MTH has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MTH pay a dividend?
Yes. Meritage Homes Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 258.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19