MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) closed at $63.25 as of 2026-09-18, trading 8.9% below its 200-week moving average of $69.45. This places MTH in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -8.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.0x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1942 weeks of data, MTH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.1%.
With a market cap of $4.1 billion, MTH is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.1%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 6.4%. The stock trades at 0.8x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTH would have grown to $9565, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MTH as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -37.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MTH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying MTH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +47.5% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +14.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +116.8% vs +25.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MTH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MTH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $62.34 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $69.63 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $78.84 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $90.86 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $107.20 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $1.30 | $1.42 | +9.4% |
| 2026-04-22 | $0.98 | $0.86 | -11.9% |
| 2026-01-28 | $1.52 | $1.20 | -21.2% |
| 2025-10-28 | $1.72 | $1.55 | -9.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MTH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MTH has crossed below its 200-week MA 25 times with an average 1-year return of +51.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1989 | Dec 1990 | 76 | 57.5% | -12.7% | +8259.7% |
| Jul 1992 | Jan 1996 | 182 | 78.4% | -60.0% | +5001.3% |
| Feb 1996 | Mar 1996 | 2 | 1.2% | +12.9% | +10356.5% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 3 | 4.5% | +21.5% | +11160.9% |
| May 1997 | May 1997 | 1 | 2.3% | +301.8% | +11669.6% |
| Oct 1999 | May 2000 | 29 | 20.2% | +82.6% | +4957.6% |
| May 2000 | Jul 2000 | 8 | 8.7% | +300.0% | +5047.4% |
| Jul 2006 | Oct 2006 | 13 | 18.7% | -33.6% | +250.8% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2006 | 4 | 5.2% | -61.2% | +216.0% |
| Dec 2006 | Apr 2010 | 174 | 84.4% | -61.6% | +195.2% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 26 | 28.6% | +5.1% | +538.7% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 5.8% | -0.2% | +603.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 13 | 19.2% | +108.4% | +684.3% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 0.7% | +90.0% | +623.4% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 1.5% | +17.9% | +301.9% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 4.9% | +1.1% | +309.0% |
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 2 | 6.4% | -14.7% | +301.8% |
| Sep 2015 | May 2017 | 87 | 30.0% | -10.8% | +249.3% |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 2019 | 18 | 18.0% | +73.2% | +240.7% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 32.4% | +181.2% | +335.0% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 13.3% | +99.0% | +106.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 15.9% | +83.8% | +76.1% |
| Mar 2026 | Apr 2026 | 4 | 11.2% | N/A | +2.5% |
| Apr 2026 | Jun 2026 | 5 | 12.0% | N/A | -3.3% |
| Aug 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 8.9% | Ongoing | -5.4% |
| Average | 27 | — | +51.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTH below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) is trading 8.9% below its 200-week moving average of $69.45. The current price is $63.25.
What is MTH's 200-week moving average price?
Meritage Homes Corporation's 200-week moving average is $69.45 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MTH drops below its 200-week moving average?
MTH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 25 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +51.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is MTH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MTH as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 38. Free cash flow yield is 7.1%. Return on equity is 6.4%. Price-to-book is 0.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MTH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MTH would have grown to $9565, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 14.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MTH has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MTH pay a dividend?
Yes. Meritage Homes Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 304.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18