MTH
Meritage Homes Corporation Consumer Discretionary - Homebuilders Investor Relations →
Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) closed at $75.91 as of 2026-02-02, trading 15.5% above its 200-week moving average of $65.71. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 6.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1910 weeks of data, MTH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.1%.
With a market cap of $5.3 billion, MTH is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 8.8%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTH would have grown to $11235, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 15.3% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming MTH as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: MTH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 21 historical episodes, buying MTH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +47.5% after 12 months (median +21.0%), compared to +14.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 62% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +116.8% vs +25.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MTH has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +51.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 1989 | Dec 1990 | 78 | 57.4% | -12.7% | +9719.2% |
| Jul 1992 | Jan 1996 | 182 | 78.4% | -60.0% | +5891.9% |
| Feb 1996 | Mar 1996 | 2 | 1.1% | +12.9% | +12182.0% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 3 | 4.4% | +21.5% | +13126.7% |
| May 1997 | May 1997 | 1 | 2.3% | +301.8% | +13724.3% |
| Oct 1999 | May 2000 | 29 | 20.2% | +82.6% | +5840.5% |
| May 2000 | Jul 2000 | 8 | 8.7% | +300.0% | +5946.0% |
| Jul 2006 | Oct 2006 | 13 | 18.7% | -33.6% | +312.0% |
| Oct 2006 | Nov 2006 | 4 | 5.2% | -61.2% | +271.1% |
| Dec 2006 | Apr 2010 | 174 | 84.4% | -61.6% | +246.7% |
| May 2010 | Nov 2010 | 26 | 28.6% | +5.1% | +650.2% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 5.8% | -0.2% | +726.8% |
| Aug 2011 | Nov 2011 | 13 | 19.2% | +108.4% | +821.2% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 0.7% | +90.0% | +749.7% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 1.5% | +17.9% | +372.1% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 1 | 4.9% | +1.1% | +380.4% |
| Jan 2015 | Jan 2015 | 2 | 6.4% | -14.7% | +371.9% |
| Sep 2015 | May 2017 | 87 | 30.0% | -10.8% | +310.3% |
| Sep 2018 | Jan 2019 | 18 | 18.0% | +73.2% | +300.1% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 6 | 32.4% | +181.2% | +410.9% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 2 | 13.3% | +98.6% | +142.7% |
| Aug 2022 | Nov 2022 | 10 | 15.9% | +83.8% | +106.9% |
| Average | 30 | — | +51.1% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02