MTG
MGIC Investment Corporation Financial Services - Insurance - Specialty Investor Relations →
MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) closed at $30.04 as of 2026-07-31, trading 42.2% above its 200-week moving average of $21.12. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 41.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.94 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1777 weeks of data, MTG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.1%.
With a market cap of $6.2 billion, MTG is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.4%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 13.9%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 25.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTG would have grown to $297, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. MTG has returned 3.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 9.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MTG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying MTG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.2% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.5% vs +16.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MTG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MTG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $22.33 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $23.67 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $25.19 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $26.92 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $28.90 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MTG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MTG has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +18.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1992 | Aug 1992 | 1 | 0.5% | +83.0% | +331.3% |
| Sep 1998 | Nov 1998 | 5 | 16.6% | +40.7% | +12.1% |
| Dec 1998 | Apr 1999 | 19 | 18.7% | +66.6% | +1.6% |
| Aug 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | 4.8% | +39.3% | -11.2% |
| Jan 2000 | May 2000 | 18 | 28.5% | +16.4% | -15.9% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 3 | 6.1% | +60.4% | -19.6% |
| Oct 2001 | Oct 2001 | 1 | 3.8% | -13.2% | -28.3% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 1.0% | +1.8% | -31.7% |
| Sep 2002 | Aug 2003 | 50 | 34.1% | +0.8% | -32.6% |
| Sep 2003 | Jan 2004 | 17 | 11.4% | +17.6% | -33.2% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 5 | 3.3% | +19.3% | -37.0% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 1.6% | +4.5% | -37.2% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 8 | 6.8% | -5.8% | -37.0% |
| Oct 2006 | Dec 2006 | 7 | 3.6% | -62.2% | -37.8% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 7 | 7.1% | -74.0% | -37.6% |
| Jun 2007 | May 2013 | 308 | 97.5% | -83.9% | -42.2% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 10.2% | +66.5% | +460.2% |
| Apr 2016 | Aug 2016 | 16 | 21.3% | +45.8% | +388.1% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | +58.0% | +347.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | 7.4% | +42.5% | +247.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 57.1% | +39.1% | +259.4% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 3.2% | +33.9% | +181.4% |
| Average | 24 | — | +18.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTG below its 200-week moving average?
No. MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) is currently 42.2% above its 200-week moving average of $21.12. It would need to fall to $21.12 to cross below the line.
What is MTG's 200-week moving average price?
MGIC Investment Corporation's 200-week moving average is $21.12 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MTG drops below its 200-week moving average?
MTG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is MTG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MTG as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow yield is 8.4%. Return on equity is 13.9%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MTG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in MTG would have grown to $297, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 3.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MTG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MTG pay a dividend?
Yes. MGIC Investment Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 223.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31