MTG
MGIC Investment Corporation Financial Services - Insurance - Specialty Investor Relations →
MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) closed at $29.69 as of 2026-09-18, trading 37.0% above its 200-week moving average of $21.66. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 42.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 77, MTG is in overbought territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.4x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 1784 weeks of data, MTG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTG at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +18.1%.
With a market cap of $6.1 billion, MTG is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 8.5%, which is notably high. Return on equity stands at 13.9%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 25.2% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTG would have grown to $295, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MTG has returned 3.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 9.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MTG vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTG Crosses Below the Line?
Across 22 historical episodes, buying MTG when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +20.2% after 12 months (median +27.0%), compared to +14.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 68% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.5% vs +16.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTG crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MTG would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MTG's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-28.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $26.60 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $27.81 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $29.15 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $30.62 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $32.24 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $0.76 | $0.87 | +14.2% |
| 2026-04-29 | $0.74 | $0.76 | +2.4% |
| 2026-02-02 | $0.75 | $0.75 | +0.7% |
| 2025-10-29 | $0.74 | $0.83 | +12.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MTG's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MTG has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +18.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1992 | Aug 1992 | 1 | 0.5% | +83.0% | +328.6% |
| Sep 1998 | Nov 1998 | 5 | 16.6% | +40.7% | +11.4% |
| Dec 1998 | Apr 1999 | 19 | 18.7% | +66.6% | +0.9% |
| Aug 1999 | Sep 1999 | 3 | 4.8% | +39.3% | -11.8% |
| Jan 2000 | May 2000 | 18 | 28.5% | +16.4% | -16.4% |
| Jun 2000 | Jul 2000 | 3 | 6.1% | +60.4% | -20.1% |
| Oct 2001 | Oct 2001 | 1 | 3.8% | -13.2% | -28.8% |
| Jul 2002 | Jul 2002 | 1 | 1.0% | +1.8% | -32.1% |
| Sep 2002 | Aug 2003 | 50 | 34.1% | +0.8% | -33.1% |
| Sep 2003 | Jan 2004 | 17 | 11.4% | +17.6% | -33.6% |
| Apr 2005 | May 2005 | 5 | 3.3% | +19.3% | -37.4% |
| Oct 2005 | Oct 2005 | 3 | 1.6% | +4.5% | -37.6% |
| Jul 2006 | Sep 2006 | 8 | 6.8% | -5.8% | -37.4% |
| Oct 2006 | Dec 2006 | 7 | 3.6% | -62.2% | -38.1% |
| Feb 2007 | Apr 2007 | 7 | 7.1% | -74.0% | -38.0% |
| Jun 2007 | May 2013 | 308 | 97.5% | -83.9% | -42.5% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 6 | 10.2% | +66.5% | +456.7% |
| Apr 2016 | Aug 2016 | 16 | 21.3% | +45.8% | +385.1% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | +58.0% | +344.5% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 3 | 7.4% | +42.5% | +244.9% |
| Mar 2020 | Nov 2020 | 36 | 57.1% | +39.1% | +257.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jun 2022 | 1 | 3.2% | +33.9% | +179.7% |
| Average | 24 | — | +18.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTG below its 200-week moving average?
No. MGIC Investment Corporation (MTG) is currently 37.0% above its 200-week moving average of $21.66. It would need to fall to $21.66 to cross below the line.
What is MTG's 200-week moving average price?
MGIC Investment Corporation's 200-week moving average is $21.66 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MTG drops below its 200-week moving average?
MTG has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +18.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is MTG a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MTG as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 77 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 8.5%. Return on equity is 13.9%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MTG compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MTG would have grown to $295, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 3.3% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MTG has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MTG pay a dividend?
Yes. MGIC Investment Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 229.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18