MTDR
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Matador Resources Company (MTDR) closed at $56.81 as of 2026-09-18, trading 10.7% above its 200-week moving average of $51.34. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 18.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 715 weeks of data, MTDR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTDR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +44.8%.
With a market cap of $7.0 billion, MTDR is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 13.6%. The stock trades at 1.2x book value.
Share count has increased 4.5% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 13.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTDR would have grown to $795, compared to $642 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.3% vs 14.5% for the index — confirming MTDR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -35.4% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MTDR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTDR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying MTDR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +45.8% after 12 months (median +45.0%), compared to +14.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 75% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +30.0% vs +31.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTDR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. MTDR currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $2.09 | $2.61 | +24.6% |
| 2026-05-06 | $1.26 | $1.53 | +21.4% |
| 2026-02-24 | $0.76 | $0.87 | +15.1% |
| 2025-10-21 | $1.23 | $1.36 | +11.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MTDR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MTDR has crossed below its 200-week MA 9 times with an average 1-year return of +44.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 2013 | May 2013 | 20 | 22.2% | +146.6% | +655.9% |
| Dec 2014 | Dec 2014 | 2 | 3.9% | +46.9% | +300.7% |
| Jan 2016 | Feb 2016 | 8 | 24.2% | +70.6% | +298.6% |
| Mar 2017 | Mar 2017 | 1 | 0.7% | +33.3% | +183.8% |
| Apr 2017 | May 2017 | 2 | 2.7% | +51.7% | +184.9% |
| Jun 2017 | Jul 2017 | 4 | 8.4% | +20.9% | +186.7% |
| Nov 2018 | Feb 2021 | 119 | 92.5% | -39.9% | +150.8% |
| Mar 2025 | Mar 2026 | 52 | 25.7% | +28.3% | +31.3% |
| Jun 2026 | Aug 2026 | 8 | 5.4% | N/A | +15.5% |
| Average | 24 | — | +44.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTDR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Matador Resources Company (MTDR) is currently 10.7% above its 200-week moving average of $51.34. It would need to fall to $51.34 to cross below the line.
What is MTDR's 200-week moving average price?
Matador Resources Company's 200-week moving average is $51.34 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MTDR drops below its 200-week moving average?
MTDR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 9 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +44.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is MTDR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MTDR as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 55. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 13.6%. Price-to-book is 1.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MTDR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 13.8 years, $100 invested in MTDR would have grown to $795, compared to $642 for the S&P 500. That's 16.3% annualized vs 14.5% for the index. MTDR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MTDR pay a dividend?
Yes. Matador Resources Company currently pays a dividend yield of 264.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18