MTCH
Match Group Inc. Communication Services - Internet Investor Relations →
Match Group Inc. (MTCH) closed at $35.45 as of 2026-06-19, trading 0.3% above its 200-week moving average of $35.33. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -1.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 64, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.19 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1695 weeks of data, MTCH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 25 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTCH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.0%.
With a market cap of $8.3 billion, MTCH is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 9.7%, which is notably high. The stock trades at -38.0x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 16.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 32.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTCH would have grown to $5575, compared to $2868 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MTCH as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MTCH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTCH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 23 historical episodes, buying MTCH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +48.3% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +12.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +98.8% vs +29.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTCH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MTCH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MTCH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-04.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.18 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $30.23 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $32.60 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $35.37 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $38.66 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MTCH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MTCH has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +51.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1993 | Jan 1994 | 2 | 3.6% | +7.5% | +5475.0% |
| Jan 1994 | Mar 1994 | 8 | 19.9% | N/A | +5618.0% |
| Apr 1994 | Apr 1994 | 1 | 3.4% | -5.0% | +5475.0% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 7 | 10.6% | +12.5% | +5475.0% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 3 | 2.2% | +241.5% | +5339.0% |
| Jan 1995 | May 1995 | 18 | 11.8% | +217.5% | +5475.0% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 6.7% | +11.4% | +653.4% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 3 | 3.6% | +16.6% | +645.3% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 4 | 10.0% | +82.8% | +561.8% |
| Aug 2002 | Oct 2002 | 8 | 21.7% | +72.7% | +550.7% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 4.6% | +48.3% | +533.2% |
| Jan 2003 | Feb 2003 | 5 | 5.9% | +52.3% | +508.6% |
| Aug 2004 | Mar 2006 | 84 | 30.0% | +15.8% | +536.1% |
| Mar 2006 | Oct 2006 | 31 | 20.2% | +28.0% | +425.5% |
| Jul 2007 | Feb 2010 | 134 | 39.9% | -41.4% | +410.3% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 3 | 6.1% | +72.0% | +555.7% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 1.6% | +76.3% | +526.2% |
| Nov 2015 | Sep 2016 | 44 | 44.6% | +17.9% | +153.9% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 8.1% | +74.3% | +148.9% |
| Feb 2017 | Apr 2017 | 9 | 8.4% | +142.2% | +124.9% |
| Jun 2017 | Jul 2017 | 4 | 3.1% | +152.3% | +126.6% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 7.1% | -59.9% | -58.5% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2026 | 210 | 68.3% | -61.6% | -60.1% |
| May 2026 | Ongoing | 6+ | 3.3% | Ongoing | +0.1% |
| Average | 25 | — | +51.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTCH below its 200-week moving average?
No. Match Group Inc. (MTCH) is currently 0.3% above its 200-week moving average of $35.33. It would need to fall to $35.33 to cross below the line.
What is MTCH's 200-week moving average price?
Match Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $35.33 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MTCH drops below its 200-week moving average?
MTCH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +51.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 25 weeks on average.
Is MTCH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MTCH as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 64. Free cash flow yield is 9.7%. Price-to-book is -38.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MTCH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.6 years, $100 invested in MTCH would have grown to $5575, compared to $2868 for the S&P 500. That's 13.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MTCH has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19