MTCH
Match Group Inc. Communication Services - Internet Investor Relations →
Match Group Inc. (MTCH) closed at $39.41 as of 2026-07-31, trading 13.5% above its 200-week moving average of $34.73. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 9.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 59, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.88 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1701 weeks of data, MTCH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTCH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +51.0%.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 16.8% over the past three years.
Over the past 32.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTCH would have grown to $6231, compared to $2850 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.5% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MTCH as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 29% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MTCH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTCH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying MTCH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +48.3% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +12.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 70% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +98.8% vs +29.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTCH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MTCH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MTCH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.42 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $30.60 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $33.13 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $36.13 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $39.73 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MTCH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MTCH has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +51.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1993 | Jan 1994 | 2 | 3.6% | +7.5% | +6130.9% |
| Jan 1994 | Mar 1994 | 8 | 19.9% | N/A | +6290.6% |
| Apr 1994 | Apr 1994 | 1 | 3.4% | -5.0% | +6130.9% |
| May 1994 | Jun 1994 | 7 | 10.6% | +12.5% | +6130.9% |
| Sep 1994 | Oct 1994 | 3 | 2.2% | +241.5% | +5978.9% |
| Jan 1995 | May 1995 | 18 | 11.8% | +217.5% | +6130.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Oct 2001 | 2 | 6.7% | +11.4% | +742.0% |
| Oct 2001 | Nov 2001 | 3 | 3.6% | +16.6% | +733.0% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 4 | 10.0% | +82.8% | +639.7% |
| Aug 2002 | Oct 2002 | 8 | 21.7% | +72.7% | +627.2% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 4.6% | +48.3% | +607.7% |
| Jan 2003 | Feb 2003 | 5 | 5.9% | +52.3% | +580.2% |
| Aug 2004 | Mar 2006 | 84 | 30.0% | +15.8% | +611.0% |
| Mar 2006 | Oct 2006 | 31 | 20.2% | +28.0% | +487.3% |
| Jul 2007 | Feb 2010 | 134 | 39.9% | -41.4% | +470.3% |
| May 2010 | May 2010 | 3 | 6.1% | +72.0% | +632.8% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 1.6% | +76.3% | +599.9% |
| Nov 2015 | Sep 2016 | 44 | 44.6% | +17.9% | +183.7% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 8.1% | +74.3% | +178.2% |
| Feb 2017 | Apr 2017 | 9 | 8.4% | +142.2% | +151.3% |
| Jun 2017 | Jul 2017 | 4 | 3.1% | +152.3% | +153.2% |
| Mar 2022 | Mar 2022 | 1 | 7.2% | -59.9% | -53.6% |
| Apr 2022 | Apr 2026 | 210 | 68.3% | -61.6% | -55.4% |
| May 2026 | Jun 2026 | 5 | 3.3% | N/A | +11.9% |
| Average | 24 | — | +51.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTCH below its 200-week moving average?
No. Match Group Inc. (MTCH) is currently 13.5% above its 200-week moving average of $34.73. It would need to fall to $34.73 to cross below the line.
What is MTCH's 200-week moving average price?
Match Group Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $34.73 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MTCH drops below its 200-week moving average?
MTCH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +51.0%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is MTCH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MTCH as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 59. Price-to-book is -42.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MTCH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.7 years, $100 invested in MTCH would have grown to $6231, compared to $2850 for the S&P 500. That's 13.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MTCH has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MTCH pay a dividend?
Yes. Match Group Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 204.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31