MTB
M&T Bank Corporation Financial Services - Banking Investor Relations →
M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) closed at $227.31 as of 2026-09-18, trading 38.7% above its 200-week moving average of $163.85. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 46.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 48, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.87 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2378 weeks of data, MTB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times. On average, these episodes lasted 12 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MTB at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +34.6%.
With a market cap of $32.8 billion, MTB is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 10.7%. The stock trades at 1.3x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 10.3% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MTB would have grown to $3599, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 11.2% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MTB as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -13.1% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MTB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MTB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying MTB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.8% after 12 months (median +37.0%), compared to +11.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 78% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +36.3% vs +25.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MTB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MTB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MTB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-16.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $227.15 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $236.26 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $246.15 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $256.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $268.62 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | $4.66 | $5.32 | +14.1% |
| 2026-04-15 | $4.02 | $4.13 | +2.6% |
| 2026-01-16 | $4.47 | $4.67 | +4.5% |
| 2025-10-16 | $4.39 | $4.82 | +9.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MTB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MTB has crossed below its 200-week MA 21 times with an average 1-year return of +34.6% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 1.2% | +91.5% | +9866.5% |
| Sep 1990 | Nov 1990 | 9 | 8.4% | +93.9% | +10259.1% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 2 | 0.8% | +103.1% | +9557.9% |
| Feb 2000 | Mar 2000 | 5 | 9.0% | +75.7% | +1046.9% |
| May 2000 | May 2000 | 2 | 3.8% | +74.8% | +1006.7% |
| Jul 2007 | Aug 2007 | 2 | 2.8% | -26.1% | +308.7% |
| Oct 2007 | Mar 2010 | 125 | 65.2% | -25.7% | +300.0% |
| May 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 1.4% | +17.7% | +378.0% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 1.9% | +52.5% | +410.1% |
| Jan 2016 | Jan 2016 | 2 | 2.7% | +52.9% | +194.8% |
| Feb 2016 | Feb 2016 | 3 | 1.9% | +59.8% | +190.8% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 1.0% | +25.3% | +108.7% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 2.1% | -26.5% | +98.8% |
| Feb 2020 | Jan 2021 | 45 | 41.1% | +11.5% | +99.5% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 4 | 8.1% | +15.2% | +89.9% |
| Jun 2021 | Jun 2021 | 1 | 0.2% | +16.9% | +87.5% |
| Jul 2021 | Sep 2021 | 11 | 9.8% | +15.0% | +88.4% |
| Dec 2022 | Dec 2022 | 1 | 0.8% | +6.1% | +83.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 19 | 19.7% | +12.8% | +93.3% |
| Aug 2023 | Nov 2023 | 16 | 18.9% | +24.1% | +85.4% |
| Feb 2024 | Feb 2024 | 1 | 0.1% | +55.2% | +85.2% |
| Average | 12 | — | +34.6% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MTB below its 200-week moving average?
No. M&T Bank Corporation (MTB) is currently 38.7% above its 200-week moving average of $163.85. It would need to fall to $163.85 to cross below the line.
What is MTB's 200-week moving average price?
M&T Bank Corporation's 200-week moving average is $163.85 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MTB drops below its 200-week moving average?
MTB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 21 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +34.6%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 12 weeks on average.
Is MTB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MTB as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 48. Return on equity is 10.7%. Price-to-book is 1.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MTB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MTB would have grown to $3599, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 11.2% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MTB has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MTB pay a dividend?
Yes. M&T Bank Corporation currently pays a dividend yield of 264.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18