MSTR
MicroStrategy Inc. Technology - Business Intelligence Investor Relations →
MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) closed at $112.53 as of 2026-06-19, trading 28.6% below its 200-week moving average of $157.61. This places MSTR in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -21.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 42, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.00 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1414 weeks of data, MSTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times. On average, these episodes lasted 32 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MSTR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +48.5%.
With a market cap of $40.0 billion, MSTR is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -30.8%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Share count has increased 170.2% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 27.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSTR would have grown to $948, compared to $923 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 8.6% vs 8.5% for the index — confirming MSTR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $779,395. Notably, these purchases occurred while MSTR is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MSTR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MSTR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 19 historical episodes, buying MSTR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +61.2% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 72% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +197.5% vs +23.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSTR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. MSTR currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MSTR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MSTR has crossed below its 200-week MA 20 times with an average 1-year return of +48.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 5 | 13.7% | +83.2% | +842.7% |
| Apr 2000 | Sep 2004 | 231 | 98.2% | -92.6% | +235.3% |
| Jul 2007 | Sep 2007 | 9 | 11.0% | -16.4% | +1419.2% |
| Jan 2008 | Apr 2008 | 14 | 18.7% | -47.9% | +1445.3% |
| Apr 2008 | Oct 2009 | 78 | 60.2% | -47.1% | +1432.9% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 0.2% | +41.2% | +1322.1% |
| Apr 2010 | Jul 2010 | 12 | 12.3% | +84.5% | +1369.1% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 4.0% | +65.8% | +1353.5% |
| Oct 2012 | Jan 2013 | 12 | 12.4% | +26.8% | +1066.5% |
| Feb 2013 | Feb 2013 | 3 | 2.6% | +25.4% | +1037.5% |
| Mar 2013 | Oct 2013 | 31 | 20.6% | +12.3% | +1013.3% |
| Mar 2014 | Apr 2014 | 3 | 10.6% | +51.8% | +907.8% |
| Jul 2017 | Nov 2019 | 119 | 28.9% | -7.7% | +703.8% |
| Nov 2019 | Sep 2020 | 43 | 33.4% | +46.5% | +642.3% |
| May 2022 | Aug 2022 | 13 | 45.5% | +11.0% | +282.4% |
| Aug 2022 | Jun 2023 | 45 | 55.5% | +16.1% | +297.6% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 2 | 4.8% | +304.8% | +242.4% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 6 | 9.8% | +315.1% | +230.2% |
| Feb 2026 | Apr 2026 | 10 | 20.4% | N/A | -16.6% |
| Jun 2026 | Ongoing | 3+ | 28.6% | Ongoing | -6.6% |
| Average | 32 | — | +48.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSTR below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) is trading 28.6% below its 200-week moving average of $157.61. The current price is $112.53.
What is MSTR's 200-week moving average price?
MicroStrategy Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $157.61 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MSTR drops below its 200-week moving average?
MSTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 20 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +48.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 32 weeks on average.
Is MSTR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MSTR as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 42. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -30.8%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MSTR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.2 years, $100 invested in MSTR would have grown to $948, compared to $923 for the S&P 500. That's 8.6% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. MSTR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19