MSTR
MicroStrategy Inc. Technology - Business Intelligence Investor Relations →
MicroStrategy Inc. (MSTR) closed at $134.93 as of 2026-02-02, trading 7.9% below its 200-week moving average of $146.47. This places MSTR in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 2.5% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 14, MSTR is in oversold territory.
Over the past 1395 weeks of data, MSTR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 19 times. On average, these episodes lasted 33 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MSTR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +48.5%.
With a market cap of $39.0 billion, MSTR is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at -11.1%. The stock trades at 0.9x book value.
Share count has increased 117.8% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 26.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSTR would have grown to $1136, compared to $849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 9.5% vs 8.3% for the index — confirming MSTR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 1 open-market purchase totaling $779,395. Notably, these purchases occurred while MSTR is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: MSTR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MSTR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying MSTR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +61.2% after 12 months (median +35.0%), compared to +9.7% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 72% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +197.5% vs +23.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSTR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MSTR has crossed below its 200-week MA 19 times with an average 1-year return of +48.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 5 | 13.7% | +83.2% | +1030.3% |
| Apr 2000 | Sep 2004 | 231 | 98.2% | -92.6% | +302.0% |
| Jul 2007 | Sep 2007 | 9 | 11.0% | -16.4% | +1721.7% |
| Jan 2008 | Apr 2008 | 14 | 18.7% | -47.9% | +1752.9% |
| Apr 2008 | Oct 2009 | 78 | 60.2% | -47.1% | +1738.0% |
| Feb 2010 | Feb 2010 | 1 | 0.2% | +41.2% | +1605.2% |
| Apr 2010 | Jul 2010 | 12 | 12.3% | +84.5% | +1661.5% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 3 | 4.0% | +65.8% | +1642.8% |
| Oct 2012 | Jan 2013 | 12 | 12.4% | +26.8% | +1298.7% |
| Feb 2013 | Feb 2013 | 3 | 2.6% | +25.4% | +1263.9% |
| Mar 2013 | Oct 2013 | 31 | 20.6% | +12.3% | +1234.9% |
| Mar 2014 | Apr 2014 | 3 | 10.6% | +51.8% | +1108.4% |
| Jul 2017 | Nov 2019 | 119 | 28.9% | -7.7% | +863.9% |
| Nov 2019 | Sep 2020 | 43 | 33.4% | +46.5% | +790.0% |
| May 2022 | Aug 2022 | 13 | 45.5% | +11.0% | +358.6% |
| Aug 2022 | Jun 2023 | 45 | 55.5% | +16.1% | +376.8% |
| Aug 2023 | Aug 2023 | 2 | 4.8% | +304.8% | +310.6% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 6 | 9.8% | +315.1% | +295.9% |
| Feb 2026 | Ongoing | 1+ | 7.9% | Ongoing | N/A |
| Average | 33 | — | +48.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02