MSM
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Industrials - Industrial Distribution Investor Relations →
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) closed at $118.51 as of 2026-06-19, trading 43.9% above its 200-week moving average of $82.33. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 42.1% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 86, MSM is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.86 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1544 weeks of data, MSM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MSM at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +10.4%.
With a market cap of $6.6 billion, MSM is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.8%. Return on equity stands at 15.0%, a solid level. The stock trades at 4.8x book value.
MSM passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 29.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSM would have grown to $1308, compared to $1638 for the S&P 500. MSM has returned 9.1% annualized vs 9.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 3 open-market purchases totaling $17,952,342. Multiple insiders purchased within a 30-day window — a cluster buy pattern that historically signals management confidence in the company's prospects.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MSM vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MSM Crosses Below the Line?
Across 27 historical episodes, buying MSM when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.3% after 12 months (median +10.0%), compared to +11.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 81% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +23.5% vs +23.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSM crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MSM would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MSM's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-01.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $82.89 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $88.55 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $95.05 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $102.58 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $111.41 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MSM's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MSM has crossed below its 200-week MA 27 times with an average 1-year return of +10.4% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 1997 | Apr 1997 | 6 | 11.0% | +81.0% | +1483.5% |
| May 1997 | May 1997 | 1 | 3.2% | +63.7% | +1452.1% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 5 | 25.4% | -50.3% | +1212.5% |
| Feb 1999 | Apr 1999 | 8 | 27.1% | -18.9% | +1267.6% |
| May 1999 | May 2000 | 52 | 56.9% | +12.7% | +1277.2% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 2 | 0.6% | -14.3% | +1208.1% |
| Jul 2000 | Nov 2001 | 67 | 34.8% | -1.2% | +1230.3% |
| Jul 2002 | Nov 2002 | 18 | 38.0% | +18.5% | +1369.9% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2008 | 4 | 8.6% | +4.7% | +511.0% |
| Mar 2008 | Mar 2008 | 1 | 2.6% | -19.5% | +501.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2009 | 49 | 33.7% | +3.9% | +456.8% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 0.2% | +33.2% | +435.9% |
| Mar 2015 | Mar 2016 | 53 | 23.9% | N/A | +167.6% |
| Jun 2016 | Jul 2016 | 2 | 3.3% | +24.2% | +168.5% |
| Jul 2016 | Aug 2016 | 2 | 0.2% | +0.9% | +159.5% |
| Sep 2016 | Sep 2016 | 3 | 1.0% | -1.3% | +158.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Oct 2016 | 2 | 1.4% | +13.8% | +160.4% |
| Jul 2017 | Sep 2017 | 11 | 9.8% | +13.7% | +148.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.8% | +8.3% | +133.7% |
| May 2019 | Dec 2019 | 31 | 12.3% | -9.5% | +133.1% |
| Jan 2020 | Nov 2020 | 43 | 33.0% | +29.6% | +124.9% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 5 | 6.1% | +11.5% | +69.6% |
| Aug 2024 | Aug 2024 | 2 | 0.8% | +11.1% | +57.6% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 2 | 4.0% | +23.0% | +62.8% |
| Oct 2024 | Nov 2024 | 2 | 3.9% | +16.6% | +61.8% |
| Dec 2024 | Jan 2025 | 4 | 8.2% | +17.3% | +64.2% |
| Jan 2025 | May 2025 | 17 | 11.7% | +9.4% | +55.2% |
| Average | 15 | — | +10.4% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSM below its 200-week moving average?
No. MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) is currently 43.9% above its 200-week moving average of $82.33. It would need to fall to $82.33 to cross below the line.
What is MSM's 200-week moving average price?
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $82.33 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MSM drops below its 200-week moving average?
MSM has crossed below its 200-week moving average 27 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +10.4%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is MSM a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MSM as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 86 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 2.8%. Return on equity is 15.0%. Price-to-book is 4.8x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MSM compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 29.7 years, $100 invested in MSM would have grown to $1308, compared to $1638 for the S&P 500. That's 9.1% annualized vs 9.9% for the index. MSM has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19