MSI
Motorola Solutions, Inc. Technology - Communication Equipment Investor Relations →
Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) closed at $458.67 as of 2026-09-18, trading 23.6% above its 200-week moving average of $371.24. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 25.6% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3328 weeks of data, MSI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times. On average, these episodes lasted 18 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MSI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +21.8%.
With a market cap of $75.9 billion, MSI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.6%. Return on equity stands at 91.6%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 28.4x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSI would have grown to $2259, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MSI has returned 9.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 18% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MSI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MSI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying MSI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.7% after 12 months (median +6.0%), compared to +7.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +20.6% vs +10.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MSI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MSI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-05.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $365.58 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $391.43 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $421.21 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $455.90 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $496.82 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | $3.85 | $4.41 | +14.4% |
| 2026-05-07 | $3.25 | $3.37 | +3.8% |
| 2026-02-11 | $4.35 | $4.59 | +5.4% |
| 2025-10-30 | $3.85 | $4.06 | +5.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MSI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MSI has crossed below its 200-week MA 42 times with an average 1-year return of +21.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1962 | Jan 1963 | 4 | 7.5% | +29.3% | +98598.9% |
| Feb 1963 | Mar 1963 | 1 | 0.6% | +34.1% | +94904.4% |
| Mar 1963 | May 1963 | 7 | 10.8% | +58.1% | +98031.0% |
| Dec 1966 | Jan 1967 | 1 | 1.8% | +26.9% | +43673.9% |
| Jan 1968 | Mar 1968 | 12 | 14.1% | +18.8% | +36920.5% |
| Aug 1968 | Sep 1968 | 4 | 3.2% | +12.9% | +33533.3% |
| Dec 1968 | Sep 1969 | 36 | 20.1% | +6.9% | +31056.7% |
| Dec 1969 | Dec 1969 | 1 | 0.5% | -16.5% | +30419.4% |
| Feb 1970 | Feb 1970 | 1 | 3.4% | +2.1% | +32091.8% |
| Mar 1970 | Jan 1971 | 47 | 47.3% | +18.9% | +33918.5% |
| Feb 1974 | Feb 1974 | 1 | 1.6% | +4.1% | +22278.8% |
| Jul 1974 | Mar 1975 | 31 | 30.9% | +7.5% | +21612.1% |
| Mar 1975 | Apr 1975 | 3 | 0.6% | -3.2% | +19299.0% |
| Jun 1975 | Jun 1975 | 3 | 3.7% | +22.3% | +19602.1% |
| Jul 1975 | Apr 1976 | 39 | 22.8% | +16.4% | +19275.3% |
| Oct 1976 | Oct 1976 | 3 | 0.5% | -7.8% | +18913.4% |
| Nov 1976 | Nov 1976 | 1 | 0.6% | -17.2% | +19061.2% |
| Jan 1977 | Apr 1978 | 64 | 25.4% | -23.9% | +19085.9% |
| Oct 1978 | May 1979 | 34 | 16.5% | +28.1% | +20139.7% |
| Jul 1979 | Jul 1979 | 2 | 2.3% | +27.7% | +20222.5% |
| Apr 1980 | Apr 1980 | 1 | 1.0% | +85.8% | +19655.8% |
| Mar 1982 | Mar 1982 | 1 | 4.8% | +105.4% | +16096.3% |
| Apr 1985 | May 1985 | 1 | 2.8% | +52.0% | +8320.0% |
| Oct 1985 | Nov 1985 | 4 | 4.6% | +13.8% | +8068.4% |
| Jul 1986 | Jul 1986 | 2 | 5.7% | +71.2% | +7182.8% |
| Oct 1986 | Nov 1986 | 7 | 6.3% | +94.9% | +7075.1% |
| Dec 1986 | Jan 1987 | 4 | 4.4% | +28.1% | +6661.6% |
| Aug 1988 | Aug 1988 | 1 | 0.4% | +39.7% | +5685.8% |
| Oct 1988 | Jan 1989 | 15 | 13.9% | +51.2% | +5932.5% |
| Feb 1989 | Apr 1989 | 7 | 7.6% | +35.7% | +5569.7% |
| Oct 1990 | Oct 1990 | 1 | 2.8% | +20.5% | +4497.5% |
| Nov 1990 | Jan 1991 | 11 | 10.7% | +18.9% | +4475.3% |
| Sep 1996 | Nov 1996 | 9 | 13.8% | +43.4% | +1056.7% |
| Apr 1997 | Apr 1997 | 1 | 0.0% | +4.8% | +911.4% |
| Dec 1997 | Jan 1998 | 7 | 6.6% | +3.1% | +896.8% |
| Feb 1998 | Nov 1998 | 38 | 33.3% | +27.5% | +901.3% |
| Dec 1998 | Dec 1998 | 2 | 3.4% | +130.6% | +866.7% |
| Oct 2000 | Jan 2004 | 170 | 67.7% | -19.4% | +724.1% |
| Apr 2007 | Apr 2007 | 1 | 0.1% | -46.7% | +764.6% |
| Jun 2007 | Sep 2007 | 16 | 10.5% | -49.4% | +749.2% |
| Oct 2007 | Jan 2011 | 166 | 80.4% | -69.5% | +741.5% |
| Jan 2011 | Jan 2011 | 1 | 1.5% | +29.4% | +1492.4% |
| Average | 18 | — | +21.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Motorola Solutions, Inc. (MSI) is currently 23.6% above its 200-week moving average of $371.24. It would need to fall to $371.24 to cross below the line.
What is MSI's 200-week moving average price?
Motorola Solutions, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $371.24 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MSI drops below its 200-week moving average?
MSI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 42 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +21.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 18 weeks on average.
Is MSI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MSI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 66. Free cash flow yield is 2.6%. Return on equity is 91.6%. Price-to-book is 28.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MSI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MSI would have grown to $2259, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 9.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MSI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MSI pay a dividend?
Yes. Motorola Solutions, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 105.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18