MSFT
Microsoft Corporation Technology - Software Investor Relations →
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) closed at $401.14 as of 2026-02-02, trading 8.6% above its 200-week moving average of $369.53. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 16.6% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 24, MSFT is in oversold territory.
Over the past 2034 weeks of data, MSFT has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 17 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MSFT at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +9.5%.
With a market cap of $3.0 trillion, MSFT is a mega-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.8%. Return on equity stands at 34.4%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 7.6x book value.
MSFT passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSFT would have grown to $24294, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.0% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming MSFT as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: MSFT vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MSFT Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying MSFT when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +4.5% after 12 months (median +9.0%), compared to +1.4% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 61% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +11.9% vs +11.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSFT crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MSFT has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +9.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 2 | 11.2% | +3.9% | +2263.8% |
| Nov 2000 | Apr 2001 | 20 | 30.6% | +13.4% | +2219.4% |
| Jul 2001 | Jul 2001 | 1 | 1.3% | -17.0% | +1888.1% |
| Jul 2001 | Jun 2004 | 151 | 38.6% | -30.7% | +1906.1% |
| Jul 2004 | Jul 2004 | 2 | 1.5% | +1.3% | +2236.4% |
| Aug 2004 | Sep 2004 | 8 | 3.1% | +15.1% | +2298.4% |
| Nov 2004 | Nov 2004 | 1 | 3.1% | +17.6% | +2316.3% |
| Mar 2005 | Apr 2005 | 5 | 2.1% | +14.5% | +2288.0% |
| Apr 2006 | Jul 2006 | 13 | 9.2% | +26.5% | +2274.1% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 5 | 6.3% | -7.9% | +2037.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2009 | 57 | 41.5% | -1.5% | +2056.2% |
| May 2010 | Oct 2010 | 22 | 10.6% | -1.7% | +1961.5% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 2 | 1.2% | +1.0% | +1959.3% |
| Mar 2011 | Mar 2011 | 1 | 2.5% | +35.0% | +2007.7% |
| Apr 2011 | Apr 2011 | 1 | 0.0% | +24.8% | +1960.4% |
| May 2011 | Jun 2011 | 7 | 5.6% | +27.9% | +1988.4% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 1 | 4.0% | +32.0% | +2059.3% |
| Nov 2011 | Nov 2011 | 1 | 0.0% | +17.2% | +2007.8% |
| Average | 17 | — | +9.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02