MSEX
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Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) closed at $55.32 as of 2026-09-18, trading 6.2% below its 200-week moving average of $58.95. This places MSEX in the deep value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -4.1% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 57, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.2x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.90 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2747 weeks of data, MSEX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MSEX at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +5.9%.
With a market cap of $1042 million, MSEX is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 9.8%. The stock trades at 2.0x book value.
Share count has increased 5.0% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSEX would have grown to $2196, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MSEX has returned 9.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MSEX vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MSEX Crosses Below the Line?
Across 9 historical episodes, buying MSEX when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -6.1% after 12 months (median -13.0%), compared to +19.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 44% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was -2.7% vs +29.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSEX crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. MSEX currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $0.70 | $0.79 | +12.9% |
| 2026-04-30 | $0.59 | $0.57 | -3.4% |
| 2026-02-19 | $0.46 | $0.46 | — |
| 2025-10-31 | $0.85 | $0.77 | -9.1% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MSEX's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MSEX has crossed below its 200-week MA 22 times with an average 1-year return of +5.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Mar 1974 | 5 | 9.0% | -12.5% | +16261.0% |
| Apr 1974 | Jan 1976 | 91 | 20.5% | -13.6% | +15429.1% |
| Mar 1976 | Jun 1976 | 13 | 0.9% | +44.4% | +16867.0% |
| Oct 1979 | Nov 1979 | 7 | 4.6% | -1.3% | +12116.2% |
| Jan 1980 | Apr 1982 | 118 | 26.1% | -18.4% | +11955.5% |
| Jun 1982 | Aug 1982 | 10 | 4.3% | +47.9% | +12804.5% |
| Oct 1989 | Oct 1989 | 1 | 0.9% | +3.3% | +3906.9% |
| Nov 1989 | Nov 1989 | 1 | 1.6% | +4.5% | +3916.8% |
| Apr 1990 | Apr 1990 | 1 | 1.7% | +12.8% | +3843.7% |
| Jul 1990 | Aug 1990 | 1 | 0.3% | +15.0% | +3769.6% |
| Sep 1990 | Nov 1990 | 8 | 2.7% | +23.5% | +3821.4% |
| Nov 1990 | Dec 1990 | 6 | 0.6% | +22.1% | +3742.9% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 1.2% | +31.8% | +3785.6% |
| Dec 2005 | Jan 2006 | 1 | 0.7% | +12.0% | +476.1% |
| Jun 2006 | Jun 2006 | 3 | 1.8% | +12.3% | +464.2% |
| Jun 2008 | Nov 2009 | 75 | 27.5% | -8.4% | +442.8% |
| Jun 2010 | Jun 2010 | 1 | 3.4% | +21.9% | +446.8% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 3 | 0.3% | +22.6% | +429.3% |
| Feb 2023 | Mar 2023 | 4 | 5.8% | -31.1% | -21.0% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 4 | 6.7% | -31.3% | -17.8% |
| Jun 2023 | Jul 2023 | 3 | 1.8% | -33.0% | -23.7% |
| Aug 2023 | Ongoing | 162+ | 40.3% | Ongoing | -24.5% |
| Average | 24 | — | +5.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSEX below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Middlesex Water Company (MSEX) is trading 6.2% below its 200-week moving average of $58.95. The current price is $55.32.
What is MSEX's 200-week moving average price?
Middlesex Water Company's 200-week moving average is $58.95 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MSEX drops below its 200-week moving average?
MSEX has crossed below its 200-week moving average 22 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +5.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is MSEX a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MSEX as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 57. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 9.8%. Price-to-book is 2.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MSEX compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MSEX would have grown to $2196, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 9.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MSEX has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MSEX pay a dividend?
Yes. Middlesex Water Company currently pays a dividend yield of 256.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18