MSCI

MSCI Inc. Financial Services - Financial Data & Stock Exchanges Investor Relations →

NO
10.3% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 13.9% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $526.67
14-Week RSI 56
Rel. Volume (14w) This week's trading vs. the 14-week average 1.1x
Buyers vs. Sellers (14w) Are up-weeks or down-weeks getting more volume? 1.04

MSCI Inc. (MSCI) closed at $581.19 as of 2026-06-19, trading 10.3% above its 200-week moving average of $526.67. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 13.9% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 56, indicating neutral momentum.

Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.

Over the past 922 weeks of data, MSCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MSCI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.8%.

With a market cap of $42.3 billion, MSCI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. The stock trades at -15.3x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.0% over the past three years.

Over the past 17.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSCI would have grown to $3851, compared to $1066 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 22.8% vs 14.3% for the index — confirming MSCI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 5 open-market purchases totaling $21,242,717.

Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.

Business Health

Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.

Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)

Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy

Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)

ROIC Return on invested capital (%)

FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal

Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)

Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)

Growth of $100: MSCI vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After MSCI Crosses Below the Line?

Across 8 historical episodes, buying MSCI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +33.0% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +19.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +63.4% vs +41.3% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSCI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

Bean Score Experimental

The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MSCI would reach each dislocation threshold.

Current Bean Score -1.64σ
Current FCF Yield 3.28%
Baseline Yield 3.72%
Historical σ 0.21pp

Dislocation Price Levels

Prices where MSCI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-07-21.

LevelσPriceSignal
Deep Value+2σ$499.63Unusually cheap — potential buy zone
Value+1σ$526.88Cheap vs. own history
Fair Value+0σ$557.27Historical mean behavior
Expensive-1σ$591.38Expensive vs. own history
Deep Expensive-2σ$629.94Unusually expensive — potential trim zone

Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end

Data depth: 2 quarterly baselines, 22 price observations — Limited history (4+ quarters preferred for reliability)

Signal Accuracy Collecting Data

The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"

11 / 13 weeks minimum

Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.

Dislocation Scores Experimental

Each score measures deviation from MSCI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.

Yield Dislocation +1.36σ Dividend yield vs own 10-yr norm
Drawdown Score +0.78σ Distance from line vs own history
Sector-Relative N/A Vs sector median this week
Buyback Acceleration -2.7pp YoY share change vs own 3-yr pace (− = accelerating)
Insider Intensity 74th TTM buys / market cap, percentile of buyers
FCF Yield vs History -0.1pp Vs own recent annual mean
Earnings Quality Stable Accrual gap trend (-2.7pp of revenue)

Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.

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Insider Buying Activity

5 conviction buys in the past 12 months (purchases over $500K with meaningful position increases).

DateInsiderTitleValueSharesPosition +%
2026-05-15FERNANDEZ HENRY AChief Executive Officer$2,249,5914,000+0.2%
2026-02-18ASHE ROBERT GERARDDirector$1,999,5563,681+18.6%
2026-02-17FERNANDEZ HENRY AChief Executive Officer$3,560,2396,800+0.3%
2025-12-05FERNANDEZ HENRY AChief Executive Officer$6,701,73212,500+0.6%
2025-07-25FERNANDEZ HENRY AChief Executive Officer$6,731,59912,400+0.6%

Historical Touches

MSCI has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +32.8% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Oct 2008Jul 20093856.3%+86.3%+4242.5%
Sep 2011Sep 201110.5%+21.5%+2137.9%
Oct 2012Jan 20131618.3%+49.9%+2372.0%
Apr 2013Apr 201331.8%+33.2%+1953.1%
Jun 2013Jul 201320.8%+34.8%+1907.8%
Apr 2024May 202433.8%+13.4%+25.2%
Jun 2024Jul 202431.5%+14.3%+24.1%
Mar 2025Apr 202512.3%+8.8%+16.5%
Average8+32.8%

Frequently Asked Questions

Is MSCI below its 200-week moving average?

No. MSCI Inc. (MSCI) is currently 10.3% above its 200-week moving average of $526.67. It would need to fall to $526.67 to cross below the line.

What is MSCI's 200-week moving average price?

MSCI Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $526.67 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.

What happens when MSCI drops below its 200-week moving average?

MSCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.

Is MSCI a good value right now?

Here's what our data says about MSCI as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 56. Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Price-to-book is -15.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.

How does MSCI compare to the S&P 500?

Over the past 17.8 years, $100 invested in MSCI would have grown to $3851, compared to $1066 for the S&P 500. That's 22.8% annualized vs 14.3% for the index. MSCI has outperformed the broader market over this period.

Does MSCI pay a dividend?

Yes. MSCI Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 135.00%.

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of week of 2026-06-19