MSCI
MSCI Inc. Financial Services - Financial Data & Stock Exchanges Investor Relations →
MSCI Inc. (MSCI) closed at $572.24 as of 2026-07-31, trading 7.7% above its 200-week moving average of $531.45. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 3.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 47, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.1x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.82 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 928 weeks of data, MSCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times. On average, these episodes lasted 8 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MSCI at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +32.8%.
With a market cap of $41.6 billion, MSCI is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.9%. The stock trades at -15.5x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 8.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 17.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSCI would have grown to $3792, compared to $1066 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 22.6% vs 14.2% for the index — confirming MSCI as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 4 open-market purchases totaling $14,511,118.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 12.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MSCI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MSCI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 8 historical episodes, buying MSCI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +33.0% after 12 months (median +24.0%), compared to +19.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 100% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +64.0% vs +41.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSCI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MSCI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MSCI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $503.88 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $531.08 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $561.37 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $595.34 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $633.68 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MSCI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MSCI has crossed below its 200-week MA 8 times with an average 1-year return of +32.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 2008 | Jul 2009 | 38 | 56.3% | +86.3% | +4175.7% |
| Sep 2011 | Sep 2011 | 1 | 0.5% | +21.5% | +2103.4% |
| Oct 2012 | Jan 2013 | 16 | 18.3% | +49.9% | +2333.9% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 3 | 1.8% | +33.2% | +1921.5% |
| Jun 2013 | Jul 2013 | 2 | 0.8% | +34.8% | +1876.9% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 3 | 3.8% | +13.4% | +23.3% |
| Jun 2024 | Jul 2024 | 3 | 1.5% | +14.3% | +22.2% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 1 | 2.3% | +8.8% | +14.7% |
| Average | 8 | — | +32.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSCI below its 200-week moving average?
No. MSCI Inc. (MSCI) is currently 7.7% above its 200-week moving average of $531.45. It would need to fall to $531.45 to cross below the line.
What is MSCI's 200-week moving average price?
MSCI Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $531.45 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MSCI drops below its 200-week moving average?
MSCI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 8 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +32.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 8 weeks on average.
Is MSCI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MSCI as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 47. Free cash flow yield is 2.9%. Price-to-book is -15.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MSCI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 17.8 years, $100 invested in MSCI would have grown to $3792, compared to $1066 for the S&P 500. That's 22.6% annualized vs 14.2% for the index. MSCI has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MSCI pay a dividend?
Yes. MSCI Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 142.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31