MSBI
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) closed at $33.54 as of 2026-09-18, trading 63.8% above its 200-week moving average of $20.48. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 63.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 71, MSBI is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.6x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.32 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 490 weeks of data, MSBI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.9%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $696 million, MSBI is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 7.5%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
Over the past 9.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSBI would have grown to $149, compared to $366 for the S&P 500. MSBI has returned 4.3% annualized vs 14.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -24.7% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MSBI vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MSBI Crosses Below the Line?
Across 10 historical episodes, buying MSBI when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.3% after 12 months (median +3.0%), compared to +19.9% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +24.4% vs +38.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSBI crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MSBI would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MSBI's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $28.64 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $31.73 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $35.57 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $40.47 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $46.93 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $0.78 | $0.82 | +4.9% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.61 | $0.79 | +29.1% |
| 2026-01-22 | $0.75 | $0.53 | -29.3% |
| 2025-10-30 | $0.64 | $0.24 | -62.5% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MSBI's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MSBI has crossed below its 200-week MA 10 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2017 | Aug 2017 | 2 | 0.2% | +20.7% | +76.5% |
| Oct 2018 | Nov 2019 | 56 | 31.8% | -6.8% | +74.1% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2021 | 57 | 50.1% | -23.3% | +77.3% |
| Mar 2023 | Jul 2023 | 17 | 12.8% | +18.5% | +89.2% |
| Sep 2023 | Oct 2023 | 6 | 3.2% | +15.3% | +93.0% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 2 | 1.9% | -17.9% | +78.4% |
| Jul 2024 | Aug 2024 | 3 | 5.1% | -20.6% | +73.4% |
| Sep 2024 | Sep 2024 | 1 | 0.2% | -12.5% | +71.1% |
| Sep 2024 | Oct 2024 | 2 | 2.5% | -15.5% | +70.8% |
| Jan 2025 | Dec 2025 | 46 | 30.6% | +23.4% | +86.6% |
| Average | 19 | — | +-1.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSBI below its 200-week moving average?
No. Midland States Bancorp, Inc. (MSBI) is currently 63.8% above its 200-week moving average of $20.48. It would need to fall to $20.48 to cross below the line.
What is MSBI's 200-week moving average price?
Midland States Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $20.48 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MSBI drops below its 200-week moving average?
MSBI has crossed below its 200-week moving average 10 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.9%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is MSBI a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MSBI as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 71 (overbought). Return on equity is 7.5%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MSBI compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 9.4 years, $100 invested in MSBI would have grown to $149, compared to $366 for the S&P 500. That's 4.3% annualized vs 14.8% for the index. MSBI has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MSBI pay a dividend?
Yes. Midland States Bancorp, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 393.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18