MSA
MSA Safety Incorporated Industrials - Security & Protection Services Investor Relations →
MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) closed at $190.27 as of 2026-07-31, trading 18.2% above its 200-week moving average of $160.91. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 8.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 70, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.09 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2740 weeks of data, MSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times. On average, these episodes lasted 19 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MSA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
With a market cap of $7.3 billion, MSA is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 4.3%. Return on equity stands at 23.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 5.2x book value.
MSA passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MSA would have grown to $8427, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 14.1% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MSA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 37.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MSA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MSA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying MSA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +32.8% after 12 months (median +28.0%), compared to +8.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 91% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +68.9% vs +20.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MSA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MSA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MSA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $155.58 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $164.91 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $175.42 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $187.36 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $201.05 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MSA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MSA has crossed below its 200-week MA 29 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1974 | Apr 1975 | 62 | 49.1% | -25.8% | +98720.5% |
| Jul 1982 | Mar 1983 | 36 | 14.2% | +11.0% | +18579.5% |
| Jun 1983 | Jul 1983 | 3 | 2.4% | -7.7% | +16732.1% |
| Aug 1983 | Aug 1984 | 54 | 13.8% | -6.5% | +16549.1% |
| Oct 1987 | Mar 1988 | 19 | 23.1% | +50.0% | +13104.5% |
| Sep 1991 | Jan 1992 | 19 | 9.4% | -4.7% | +8024.3% |
| Feb 1992 | Jul 1994 | 128 | 21.8% | -4.5% | +7856.5% |
| Aug 1994 | Aug 1994 | 1 | 0.9% | +21.1% | +8007.0% |
| Dec 1994 | Dec 1994 | 3 | 1.1% | +1.1% | +8018.6% |
| Dec 1995 | Dec 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | +24.3% | +7933.0% |
| Jun 1996 | Jul 1996 | 2 | 4.6% | +55.9% | +8131.6% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 3 | 6.9% | +24.0% | +5699.0% |
| Nov 1999 | Dec 1999 | 2 | 1.0% | +25.4% | +5264.5% |
| Jan 2000 | Jan 2000 | 1 | 0.9% | +20.4% | +5219.0% |
| Feb 2000 | Feb 2000 | 1 | 1.4% | +27.1% | +5207.8% |
| Aug 2000 | Sep 2000 | 3 | 8.6% | +75.2% | +5331.0% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 2 | 4.7% | +118.0% | +5045.3% |
| Nov 2002 | Nov 2002 | 1 | 0.2% | +142.8% | +3524.1% |
| Apr 2008 | May 2008 | 7 | 5.2% | -39.0% | +606.4% |
| Jun 2008 | Dec 2010 | 129 | 55.5% | -39.6% | +596.9% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 9 | 10.0% | +28.5% | +783.1% |
| Aug 2015 | Nov 2015 | 11 | 8.9% | +34.5% | +404.7% |
| Dec 2015 | Feb 2016 | 12 | 15.0% | +63.9% | +419.1% |
| Apr 2022 | May 2022 | 4 | 3.4% | +9.0% | +66.2% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 6 | 8.4% | +26.3% | +61.5% |
| Aug 2022 | Oct 2022 | 9 | 13.7% | +50.0% | +63.4% |
| Mar 2023 | Mar 2023 | 2 | 0.8% | +43.4% | +53.1% |
| Apr 2023 | May 2023 | 3 | 1.1% | +47.2% | +51.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 6 | 11.1% | +19.3% | +28.5% |
| Average | 19 | — | +27.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MSA below its 200-week moving average?
No. MSA Safety Incorporated (MSA) is currently 18.2% above its 200-week moving average of $160.91. It would need to fall to $160.91 to cross below the line.
What is MSA's 200-week moving average price?
MSA Safety Incorporated's 200-week moving average is $160.91 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MSA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MSA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 29 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +27.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 19 weeks on average.
Is MSA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MSA as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 70. Free cash flow yield is 4.3%. Return on equity is 23.7%. Price-to-book is 5.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MSA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in MSA would have grown to $8427, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 14.1% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MSA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MSA pay a dividend?
Yes. MSA Safety Incorporated currently pays a dividend yield of 114.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31