MS
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Morgan Stanley (MS) closed at $223.17 as of 2026-06-19, trading 99.8% above its 200-week moving average of $111.72. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 92.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 94, MS is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.3x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.10 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1690 weeks of data, MS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.2%.
With a market cap of $352.0 billion, MS is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 16.4%, a solid level. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 5.5% over the past three years.
Over the past 32.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MS would have grown to $5394, compared to $2753 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 13.1% vs 10.7% for the index — confirming MS as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 18 historical episodes, buying MS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.8% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +6.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.6% vs +28.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. MS currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MS has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +15.2% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1994 | Apr 1994 | 11 | 11.6% | +11.9% | +5293.9% |
| Jun 1994 | Jun 1994 | 1 | 3.7% | +35.9% | +5483.5% |
| Oct 1994 | Jan 1995 | 16 | 12.5% | +60.3% | +5585.8% |
| Apr 2001 | Apr 2001 | 1 | 0.6% | +11.7% | +798.8% |
| Aug 2001 | Dec 2001 | 19 | 27.2% | -11.8% | +786.1% |
| Jan 2002 | Dec 2003 | 99 | 46.7% | -24.2% | +694.2% |
| Apr 2004 | Aug 2004 | 18 | 8.5% | -3.3% | +710.9% |
| Sep 2004 | Oct 2004 | 5 | 3.6% | +5.9% | +755.3% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 1 | 1.8% | -79.2% | +573.1% |
| Dec 2007 | Dec 2007 | 1 | 1.2% | -71.6% | +567.6% |
| Dec 2007 | Jan 2013 | 265 | 80.7% | -64.4% | +581.2% |
| Feb 2013 | Mar 2013 | 1 | 1.4% | +38.4% | +1278.8% |
| Mar 2013 | Apr 2013 | 6 | 8.7% | +48.1% | +1294.3% |
| Jan 2016 | Aug 2016 | 29 | 16.5% | +72.8% | +1053.1% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 3.7% | +38.4% | +644.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 1 | 1.6% | +33.8% | +598.3% |
| Mar 2020 | May 2020 | 12 | 30.4% | +98.8% | +547.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 2 | 4.9% | +72.3% | +232.7% |
| Average | 27 | — | +15.2% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MS below its 200-week moving average?
No. Morgan Stanley (MS) is currently 99.8% above its 200-week moving average of $111.72. It would need to fall to $111.72 to cross below the line.
What is MS's 200-week moving average price?
Morgan Stanley's 200-week moving average is $111.72 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MS drops below its 200-week moving average?
MS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.2%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is MS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MS as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 94 (overbought). Return on equity is 16.4%. Price-to-book is 3.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.5 years, $100 invested in MS would have grown to $5394, compared to $2753 for the S&P 500. That's 13.1% annualized vs 10.7% for the index. MS has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MS pay a dividend?
Yes. Morgan Stanley currently pays a dividend yield of 181.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19