MS

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NO
77.0% ABOVE
↓ Approaching Was 79.8% last week
-15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15%+
Buy Threshold $101.65
14-Week RSI 66

Morgan Stanley (MS) closed at $179.96 as of 2026-02-02, trading 77.0% above its 200-week moving average of $101.65. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 79.8% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.

Over the past 1671 weeks of data, MS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 18 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.2%.

With a market cap of $286.0 billion, MS is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 15.7%, a solid level. The stock trades at 2.9x book value.

The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 9.3% over the past three years.

Over the past 32.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MS would have grown to $4326, compared to $2532 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 12.4% vs 10.6% for the index — confirming MS as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.

Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.

Growth of $100: MS vs S&P 500

Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.

What Happens After MS Crosses Below the Line?

Across 18 historical episodes, buying MS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.8% after 12 months (median +25.0%), compared to +6.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +50.6% vs +28.1% for the index.

Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.

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Historical Touches

MS has crossed below its 200-week MA 18 times with an average 1-year return of +15.2% after recovery.

Crossed BelowRecoveredWeeksMax Depth1-Year ReturnReturn Since Touch
Jan 1994Apr 19941111.6%+11.9%+4226.3%
Jun 1994Jun 199413.7%+35.9%+4378.4%
Oct 1994Jan 19951612.5%+60.3%+4460.4%
Apr 2001Apr 200110.6%+11.7%+620.9%
Aug 2001Dec 20011927.2%-11.8%+610.7%
Jan 2002Dec 20039946.7%-24.2%+537.0%
Apr 2004Aug 2004188.5%-3.3%+550.4%
Sep 2004Oct 200453.6%+5.9%+586.0%
Nov 2007Nov 200711.8%-79.2%+439.9%
Dec 2007Dec 200711.2%-71.6%+435.5%
Dec 2007Jan 201326580.7%-64.4%+446.4%
Feb 2013Mar 201311.4%+38.4%+1005.9%
Mar 2013Apr 201368.7%+48.1%+1018.4%
Jan 2016Aug 20162916.5%+72.8%+824.9%
Dec 2018Dec 201813.7%+38.4%+497.1%
Aug 2019Aug 201911.6%+33.8%+460.1%
Mar 2020May 20201230.4%+98.8%+419.2%
Oct 2023Oct 202324.9%+72.3%+166.9%
Average27+15.2%

Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.

Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02