MRVL
Marvell Technology Inc. Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) closed at $244.25 as of 2026-09-18, trading 183.2% above its 200-week moving average of $86.24. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 177.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 43, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.8x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.97 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1320 weeks of data, MRVL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times. On average, these episodes lasted 15 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MRVL at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.3%.
With a market cap of $219.5 billion, MRVL is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.1%. Return on equity stands at 16.5%, a solid level. The stock trades at 11.7x book value.
MRVL passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 25.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MRVL would have grown to $4267, compared to $978 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 16.0% vs 9.4% for the index — confirming MRVL as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 9.1% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MRVL vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MRVL Crosses Below the Line?
Across 28 historical episodes, buying MRVL when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +14.1% after 12 months (median -21.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 39% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +39.8% vs +28.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MRVL crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MRVL would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MRVL's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-12-01.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $182.51 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $209.04 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $244.60 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $294.72 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $370.68 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | $0.93 | $0.94 | +1.0% |
| 2026-05-27 | $0.79 | $0.80 | +0.6% |
| 2026-03-05 | $0.79 | $0.80 | +1.1% |
| 2025-12-02 | $0.74 | $0.76 | +3.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MRVL's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MRVL has crossed below its 200-week MA 28 times with an average 1-year return of +15.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 2001 | Dec 2001 | 26 | 61.6% | -9.9% | +3910.6% |
| Dec 2001 | Dec 2001 | 2 | 1.1% | -47.3% | +3103.5% |
| Feb 2002 | Mar 2002 | 4 | 7.9% | -50.6% | +3048.2% |
| Apr 2002 | May 2003 | 55 | 59.4% | -26.2% | +3431.8% |
| Jun 2003 | Jun 2003 | 1 | 2.0% | +54.4% | +3654.7% |
| Mar 2007 | Jul 2007 | 15 | 13.8% | -33.8% | +1607.0% |
| Jul 2007 | Nov 2009 | 122 | 72.9% | -12.9% | +1602.0% |
| Aug 2010 | Aug 2010 | 1 | 2.6% | -13.3% | +1877.6% |
| May 2011 | May 2011 | 3 | 3.0% | -4.5% | +1854.7% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 3 | 10.4% | -14.7% | +1892.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 6 | 14.2% | -12.4% | +2104.0% |
| Sep 2011 | Oct 2011 | 1 | 0.2% | -36.2% | +1876.3% |
| Oct 2011 | Nov 2011 | 3 | 9.6% | -41.8% | +2083.8% |
| Nov 2011 | Jan 2012 | 6 | 10.0% | -37.9% | +2083.8% |
| Apr 2012 | Nov 2013 | 81 | 51.1% | -21.8% | +1946.8% |
| Dec 2013 | Dec 2013 | 4 | 4.4% | +12.9% | +1940.1% |
| Aug 2014 | Aug 2014 | 1 | 2.1% | -1.6% | +2021.0% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 2 | 5.8% | -21.4% | +2138.4% |
| Jul 2015 | Jul 2016 | 54 | 33.4% | -18.0% | +2055.3% |
| Aug 2016 | Aug 2016 | 2 | 1.9% | +38.5% | +2203.3% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.3% | +76.5% | +1611.0% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 0.9% | +153.5% | +1245.2% |
| Oct 2022 | Nov 2022 | 4 | 11.5% | +42.9% | +568.9% |
| Dec 2022 | Jan 2023 | 7 | 16.4% | +28.1% | +496.5% |
| Feb 2023 | May 2023 | 12 | 12.5% | +54.8% | +463.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.7% | +73.3% | +421.0% |
| Mar 2025 | Jun 2025 | 10 | 21.8% | +53.4% | +295.3% |
| Aug 2025 | Sep 2025 | 2 | 1.7% | +245.3% | +289.3% |
| Average | 15 | — | +15.3% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRVL below its 200-week moving average?
No. Marvell Technology Inc. (MRVL) is currently 183.2% above its 200-week moving average of $86.24. It would need to fall to $86.24 to cross below the line.
What is MRVL's 200-week moving average price?
Marvell Technology Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $86.24 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MRVL drops below its 200-week moving average?
MRVL has crossed below its 200-week moving average 28 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.3%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 15 weeks on average.
Is MRVL a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MRVL as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 43. Free cash flow yield is 1.1%. Return on equity is 16.5%. Price-to-book is 11.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MRVL compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 25.3 years, $100 invested in MRVL would have grown to $4267, compared to $978 for the S&P 500. That's 16.0% annualized vs 9.4% for the index. MRVL has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MRVL pay a dividend?
Yes. Marvell Technology Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 10.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18