MRTN
Marten Transport, Ltd. Industrials - Trucking Investor Relations →
Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) closed at $13.50 as of 2026-09-18, trading 16.1% below its 200-week moving average of $16.10. This places MRTN in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -14.8% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 20, MRTN is in oversold territory.
A big spike in selling this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price dropped. Sometimes this kind of heavy selling marks the end of a decline. The idea is that the last reluctant holders have finally sold, leaving fewer sellers left to push the price lower.
Over the past 2038 weeks of data, MRTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times. On average, these episodes lasted 14 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MRTN at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +13.9%.
With a market cap of $1102 million, MRTN is a small-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 1.6%. The stock trades at 1.4x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MRTN would have grown to $2918, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MRTN has returned 10.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MRTN vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MRTN Crosses Below the Line?
Across 38 historical episodes, buying MRTN when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +11.3% after 12 months (median +18.0%), compared to +10.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +38.6% vs +23.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MRTN crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MRTN would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MRTN's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-22.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1.13 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $1.66 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $3.14 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $28.57 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | N/A | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | $0.08 | $0.07 | -6.7% |
| 2026-04-23 | $0.02 | $0.02 | -19.6% |
| 2026-01-27 | $0.03 | $0.05 | +99.3% |
| 2025-10-23 | $0.04 | $0.03 | -27.2% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MRTN's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MRTN has crossed below its 200-week MA 39 times with an average 1-year return of +13.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 1987 | Mar 1991 | 183 | 66.4% | -60.0% | +2340.3% |
| May 1991 | Jun 1991 | 4 | 9.4% | +40.9% | +6000.7% |
| Dec 1995 | Dec 1995 | 1 | 1.1% | -11.7% | +2136.9% |
| Jan 1996 | Jan 1996 | 2 | 0.4% | -9.8% | +2100.2% |
| Mar 1996 | Apr 1996 | 1 | 0.0% | -23.0% | +2030.4% |
| Jun 1996 | Jul 1997 | 57 | 29.6% | -18.7% | +1997.1% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 4 | 10.8% | +25.6% | +1888.4% |
| May 1999 | Jun 1999 | 1 | 1.3% | +12.6% | +1783.7% |
| Jun 1999 | Dec 1999 | 25 | 18.2% | +8.3% | +1764.1% |
| Jun 2000 | Jun 2000 | 1 | 0.5% | +26.0% | +1689.5% |
| Oct 2000 | Jan 2001 | 14 | 15.8% | +46.2% | +1824.2% |
| Feb 2001 | Feb 2001 | 1 | 4.5% | +33.9% | +1654.4% |
| Mar 2001 | Mar 2001 | 2 | 4.1% | +40.7% | +1637.4% |
| Apr 2001 | May 2001 | 2 | 6.0% | +25.8% | +1647.6% |
| Feb 2007 | Feb 2007 | 1 | 0.1% | +11.0% | +357.7% |
| Jul 2007 | Jan 2008 | 27 | 31.3% | +33.9% | +344.2% |
| Feb 2008 | Apr 2008 | 10 | 10.5% | +22.1% | +343.3% |
| Jun 2008 | Jul 2008 | 2 | 5.3% | +32.4% | +318.7% |
| Sep 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | +3.5% | +294.8% |
| Oct 2008 | Oct 2008 | 1 | 7.2% | +16.4% | +321.4% |
| Nov 2008 | Dec 2008 | 6 | 6.2% | +10.0% | +302.9% |
| Jan 2009 | Jan 2009 | 2 | 6.5% | +8.2% | +301.4% |
| Feb 2009 | Mar 2009 | 3 | 10.0% | +13.8% | +300.2% |
| Jul 2009 | Oct 2009 | 11 | 4.2% | +31.4% | +280.5% |
| Oct 2009 | Dec 2009 | 7 | 4.1% | +21.2% | +277.9% |
| Jan 2010 | Feb 2010 | 4 | 2.0% | +16.2% | +286.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Jan 2012 | 22 | 14.3% | +6.4% | +267.4% |
| Jul 2012 | Jan 2013 | 26 | 14.3% | +39.5% | +234.4% |
| Sep 2015 | Oct 2015 | 2 | 4.8% | +29.6% | +148.6% |
| Oct 2015 | Nov 2015 | 4 | 5.0% | +18.6% | +142.9% |
| Nov 2015 | Dec 2015 | 3 | 6.0% | +46.9% | +142.4% |
| Jan 2016 | Mar 2016 | 9 | 7.1% | +44.4% | +155.4% |
| Apr 2016 | Apr 2016 | 1 | 2.4% | +33.4% | +139.4% |
| Mar 2020 | Mar 2020 | 1 | 3.8% | +52.8% | +38.7% |
| Apr 2024 | May 2024 | 4 | 7.2% | -20.8% | -17.8% |
| May 2024 | Jun 2024 | 5 | 2.9% | -25.3% | -20.2% |
| Jul 2024 | Jul 2024 | 1 | 2.7% | -20.0% | -19.3% |
| Jul 2024 | May 2026 | 94 | 43.5% | -32.9% | -21.7% |
| Jul 2026 | Ongoing | 9+ | 16.1% | Ongoing | -16.8% |
| Average | 14 | — | +13.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRTN below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, Marten Transport, Ltd. (MRTN) is trading 16.1% below its 200-week moving average of $16.10. The current price is $13.50.
What is MRTN's 200-week moving average price?
Marten Transport, Ltd.'s 200-week moving average is $16.10 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MRTN drops below its 200-week moving average?
MRTN has crossed below its 200-week moving average 39 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +13.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 14 weeks on average.
Is MRTN a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MRTN as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 20 (oversold). Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 1.6%. Price-to-book is 1.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MRTN compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MRTN would have grown to $2918, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 10.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MRTN has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MRTN pay a dividend?
Yes. Marten Transport, Ltd. currently pays a dividend yield of 178.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18