MRSH
Marsh McLennan Companies, Inc. Financial Services - Insurance Brokers Investor Relations →
Marsh McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) closed at $189.69 as of 2026-07-31, trading 0.5% above its 200-week moving average of $188.82. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -4.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 67, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.02 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2740 weeks of data, MRSH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times. On average, these episodes lasted 27 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MRSH at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +15.8%.
With a market cap of $90.5 billion, MRSH is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 5.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 25.9%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 6.0x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MRSH would have grown to $2789, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. MRSH has returned 10.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 18.6% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MRSH vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MRSH Crosses Below the Line?
Across 15 historical episodes, buying MRSH when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +12.4% after 12 months (median +15.0%), compared to +21.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 71% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +25.4% vs +42.1% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MRSH crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MRSH would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MRSH's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $158.46 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $163.75 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $169.41 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $175.47 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $181.98 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MRSH's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MRSH has crossed below its 200-week MA 23 times with an average 1-year return of +15.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1974 | Jun 1974 | 2 | 3.2% | +39.0% | +18308.3% |
| Jul 1974 | Nov 1974 | 17 | 24.2% | +52.1% | +19072.8% |
| Feb 1978 | Mar 1978 | 3 | 2.0% | +17.1% | +13921.3% |
| Oct 1978 | Oct 1978 | 1 | 1.4% | +11.4% | +13089.2% |
| Mar 1980 | Jun 1980 | 16 | 11.3% | -42.7% | +12533.9% |
| Nov 1980 | Jul 1983 | 139 | 53.7% | +10.2% | +23526.4% |
| Jul 1983 | Sep 1983 | 9 | 5.1% | +6.8% | +16754.0% |
| May 1984 | May 1984 | 1 | 1.6% | +84.9% | +18317.4% |
| Sep 1994 | Dec 1994 | 13 | 7.2% | +17.4% | +3037.9% |
| Jan 1995 | Jan 1995 | 1 | 0.7% | +17.0% | +3010.0% |
| May 1995 | May 1995 | 1 | 1.0% | +25.6% | +2982.9% |
| Jul 1995 | Jul 1995 | 1 | 0.4% | +21.8% | +2945.4% |
| Jul 2002 | Aug 2002 | 4 | 10.3% | +20.8% | +641.3% |
| Sep 2002 | Oct 2002 | 4 | 22.5% | +19.6% | +669.7% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 0.9% | +5.1% | +604.0% |
| Jan 2003 | Apr 2003 | 14 | 15.3% | +17.1% | +666.8% |
| Sep 2003 | Feb 2004 | 20 | 11.1% | -2.2% | +565.2% |
| Feb 2004 | Jul 2008 | 228 | 41.1% | -32.7% | +556.8% |
| Jul 2008 | Jul 2008 | 1 | 0.8% | -25.1% | +931.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2010 | 75 | 32.6% | -3.2% | +938.7% |
| May 2010 | Aug 2010 | 16 | 12.9% | +37.8% | +1080.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 2.5% | +48.9% | +163.3% |
| Oct 2025 | Ongoing | 41+ | 15.3% | Ongoing | +3.3% |
| Average | 27 | — | +15.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRSH below its 200-week moving average?
No. Marsh McLennan Companies, Inc. (MRSH) is currently 0.5% above its 200-week moving average of $188.82. It would need to fall to $188.82 to cross below the line.
What is MRSH's 200-week moving average price?
Marsh McLennan Companies, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $188.82 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MRSH drops below its 200-week moving average?
MRSH has crossed below its 200-week moving average 23 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +15.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 27 weeks on average.
Is MRSH a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MRSH as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 67. Free cash flow yield is 5.3%. Return on equity is 25.9%. Price-to-book is 6.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MRSH compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in MRSH would have grown to $2789, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 10.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MRSH has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MRSH pay a dividend?
Yes. Marsh McLennan Companies, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 207.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31