MRNA
Moderna Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) closed at $63.96 as of 2026-06-19, trading 24.0% below its 200-week moving average of $84.11. This places MRNA in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -41.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
A big jump in activity this week — 2.2x the usual volume, and the price went up. Significantly more people than usual decided to buy. This kind of surge, especially on a stock already below its 200-week average, can be an early sign that sentiment is shifting.
Over the past 345 weeks of data, MRNA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times. On average, these episodes lasted 83 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MRNA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +858.5%.
With a market cap of $25.4 billion, MRNA is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -36.6%. The stock trades at 3.4x book value.
Share count has increased 2.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 6.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MRNA would have grown to $314, compared to $262 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 18.7% vs 15.5% for the index — confirming MRNA as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MRNA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MRNA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 2 historical episodes, buying MRNA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +245.5% after 12 months (median +497.0%), compared to +26.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +173.5% vs +44.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MRNA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. MRNA currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MRNA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MRNA has crossed below its 200-week MA 2 times with an average 1-year return of +858.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 0.8% | +858.5% | +250.9% |
| Apr 2023 | Ongoing | 165+ | 82.9% | Ongoing | -51.9% |
| Average | 83 | — | +858.5% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRNA below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-06-19, Moderna Inc. (MRNA) is trading 24.0% below its 200-week moving average of $84.11. The current price is $63.96.
What is MRNA's 200-week moving average price?
Moderna Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $84.11 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MRNA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MRNA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +858.5%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 83 weeks on average.
Is MRNA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MRNA as of 2026-06-19: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 62. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -36.6%. Price-to-book is 3.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MRNA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 6.7 years, $100 invested in MRNA would have grown to $314, compared to $262 for the S&P 500. That's 18.7% annualized vs 15.5% for the index. MRNA has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19