MRNA
Moderna Inc. Healthcare - Biotechnology Investor Relations →
Moderna Inc. (MRNA) closed at $41.01 as of 2026-02-02, trading 56.2% below its 200-week moving average of $93.60. This places MRNA in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -53.2% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 66, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 326 weeks of data, MRNA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 2 times. On average, these episodes lasted 74 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MRNA at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +858.5%.
With a market cap of $16.0 billion, MRNA is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -29.3%. The stock trades at 1.7x book value.
Over the past 6.3 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MRNA would have grown to $201, compared to $241 for the S&P 500. MRNA has returned 11.7% annualized vs 14.9% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
In the past 12 months, corporate insiders have made 2 open-market purchases totaling $6,008,569. Notably, these purchases occurred while MRNA is trading below its 200-week moving average — insiders are buying when the market is most pessimistic.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: MRNA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MRNA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 2 historical episodes, buying MRNA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +245.5% after 12 months (median +497.0%), compared to +26.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 50% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +173.5% vs +44.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MRNA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MRNA has crossed below its 200-week MA 2 times with an average 1-year return of +858.5% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2020 | 1 | 0.8% | +858.5% | +125.0% |
| Apr 2023 | Ongoing | 146+ | 82.9% | Ongoing | -69.1% |
| Average | 74 | — | +858.5% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02