MRK
Merck & Co. Inc. Healthcare - Pharmaceuticals Investor Relations →
Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) closed at $130.20 as of 2026-07-31, trading 29.5% above its 200-week moving average of $100.54. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 30.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 68, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 0.9x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.07 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 3321 weeks of data, MRK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times. On average, these episodes lasted 30 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MRK at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +11.1%.
Return on equity stands at 18.9%, a solid level. The stock trades at 7.0x book value.
Over the past 33.6 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MRK would have grown to $2063, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. MRK has returned 9.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -5.6% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MRK vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MRK Crosses Below the Line?
Across 14 historical episodes, buying MRK when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +10.0% after 12 months (median +7.0%), compared to +4.6% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 64% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +31.8% vs +16.5% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MRK crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MRK would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MRK's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $108.02 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $115.46 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $123.99 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $133.89 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $145.51 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MRK's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MRK has crossed below its 200-week MA 24 times with an average 1-year return of +11.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1970 | Jun 1970 | 2 | 1.8% | +30.7% | +62338.2% |
| Jul 1970 | Sep 1970 | 8 | 12.4% | +29.9% | +63698.5% |
| Jul 1974 | Feb 1975 | 28 | 30.5% | +16.5% | +36978.9% |
| Mar 1975 | Apr 1975 | 1 | 4.0% | +7.4% | +33977.4% |
| Apr 1975 | Apr 1975 | 1 | 0.3% | +4.0% | +32523.6% |
| Jul 1975 | Nov 1975 | 15 | 11.5% | -4.5% | +31733.7% |
| Dec 1975 | Aug 1976 | 39 | 11.5% | -11.7% | +31278.4% |
| Oct 1976 | Dec 1978 | 111 | 27.4% | -27.9% | +31492.0% |
| Jun 1982 | Aug 1982 | 9 | 9.0% | +29.9% | +28441.2% |
| Jul 1984 | Jul 1984 | 1 | 0.3% | +51.2% | +22689.0% |
| Mar 1993 | Apr 1993 | 4 | 5.6% | -8.5% | +2333.9% |
| Jun 1993 | Nov 1994 | 74 | 22.9% | -10.3% | +2282.9% |
| Jun 2001 | Jul 2001 | 5 | 8.8% | -19.0% | +440.1% |
| Aug 2001 | Jul 2006 | 256 | 48.2% | -21.0% | +427.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Nov 2009 | 75 | 37.1% | -22.4% | +621.8% |
| Apr 2010 | Jun 2010 | 9 | 11.0% | +1.0% | +557.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 3.9% | +8.7% | +578.5% |
| Jul 2010 | Aug 2010 | 6 | 3.2% | +8.1% | +565.8% |
| Nov 2010 | Nov 2010 | 3 | 1.1% | +8.4% | +562.0% |
| Jan 2011 | Apr 2011 | 13 | 6.4% | +17.3% | +564.1% |
| Aug 2011 | Sep 2011 | 8 | 4.0% | +45.8% | +601.0% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 2 | 2.0% | +42.2% | +223.8% |
| Feb 2018 | Apr 2018 | 9 | 3.2% | +45.6% | +223.0% |
| Feb 2025 | Nov 2025 | 41 | 20.6% | +45.0% | +57.1% |
| Average | 30 | — | +11.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRK below its 200-week moving average?
No. Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) is currently 29.5% above its 200-week moving average of $100.54. It would need to fall to $100.54 to cross below the line.
What is MRK's 200-week moving average price?
Merck & Co. Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $100.54 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MRK drops below its 200-week moving average?
MRK has crossed below its 200-week moving average 24 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +11.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 30 weeks on average.
Is MRK a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MRK as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 68. Return on equity is 18.9%. Price-to-book is 7.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MRK compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.6 years, $100 invested in MRK would have grown to $2063, compared to $3098 for the S&P 500. That's 9.4% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MRK has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MRK pay a dividend?
Yes. Merck & Co. Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 262.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31