MRCY
Mercury Systems, Inc. Industrials - Aerospace & Defense Investor Relations →
Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) closed at $113.91 as of 2026-06-19, trading 127.9% above its 200-week moving average of $49.99. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 142.2% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 74, MRCY is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.69 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 1433 weeks of data, MRCY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times. On average, these episodes lasted 42 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MRCY at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +20.9%.
With a market cap of $6.8 billion, MRCY is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.4%. Return on equity stands at -1.0%. The stock trades at 4.6x book value.
Share count has increased 7.3% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 27.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MRCY would have grown to $925, compared to $944 for the S&P 500. MRCY has returned 8.4% annualized vs 8.5% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MRCY vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MRCY Crosses Below the Line?
Across 16 historical episodes, buying MRCY when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +9.0% after 12 months (median -8.0%), compared to +13.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 31% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +12.4% vs +26.3% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MRCY crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MRCY would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MRCY's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $68.40 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $76.88 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $87.76 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $102.23 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $122.41 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MRCY's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MRCY has crossed below its 200-week MA 16 times with an average 1-year return of +20.9% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 1999 | Apr 1999 | 2 | 2.0% | +448.5% | +1240.1% |
| Apr 2002 | Nov 2002 | 30 | 37.7% | -22.3% | +314.5% |
| Dec 2002 | Dec 2002 | 1 | 5.7% | -17.0% | +294.2% |
| Jan 2003 | Jan 2003 | 1 | 3.0% | -13.9% | +276.8% |
| Feb 2003 | Nov 2004 | 93 | 45.4% | -7.0% | +264.6% |
| Dec 2004 | Jan 2005 | 4 | 9.8% | -27.4% | +288.2% |
| Mar 2005 | May 2005 | 10 | 13.9% | -44.5% | +294.6% |
| Jun 2005 | Jul 2005 | 2 | 0.5% | -45.4% | +314.1% |
| Aug 2005 | Nov 2009 | 226 | 82.2% | -50.1% | +329.8% |
| Dec 2009 | Dec 2009 | 1 | 4.1% | +90.0% | +1000.6% |
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 4 | 5.4% | -21.6% | +866.2% |
| Jul 2012 | Mar 2014 | 87 | 46.0% | -15.1% | +864.5% |
| May 2014 | Oct 2014 | 25 | 14.6% | +18.8% | +849.3% |
| Aug 2021 | Feb 2022 | 30 | 28.8% | -8.8% | +103.8% |
| Apr 2022 | Mar 2025 | 153 | 50.1% | -16.5% | +85.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 4.9% | +66.7% | +166.0% |
| Average | 42 | — | +20.9% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MRCY below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mercury Systems, Inc. (MRCY) is currently 127.9% above its 200-week moving average of $49.99. It would need to fall to $49.99 to cross below the line.
What is MRCY's 200-week moving average price?
Mercury Systems, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $49.99 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MRCY drops below its 200-week moving average?
MRCY has crossed below its 200-week moving average 16 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +20.9%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 42 weeks on average.
Is MRCY a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MRCY as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 74 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.4%. Return on equity is -1.0%. Price-to-book is 4.6x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MRCY compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.5 years, $100 invested in MRCY would have grown to $925, compared to $944 for the S&P 500. That's 8.4% annualized vs 8.5% for the index. MRCY has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19