MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) closed at $1217.80 as of 2026-09-18, trading 58.7% above its 200-week moving average of $767.57. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 61.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 26, MPWR is in oversold territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.83 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1091 weeks of data, MPWR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MPWR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.7%.
With a market cap of $59.8 billion, MPWR is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.7%. Return on equity stands at 22.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 15.4x book value.
Share count has increased 3.4% over three years, indicating dilution. MPWR passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 21 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MPWR would have grown to $11117, compared to $931 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 25.1% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming MPWR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 52.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MPWR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MPWR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying MPWR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +58.0% after 12 months (median +112.0%), compared to +18.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +51.8% vs +14.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MPWR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MPWR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MPWR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-29.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1126.72 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $1311.29 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1568.17 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1950.22 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $2578.38 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30 | $5.88 | $6.50 | +10.5% |
| 2026-04-30 | $4.90 | $5.10 | +4.0% |
| 2026-02-05 | $4.74 | $4.79 | +1.1% |
| 2025-10-30 | $4.64 | $4.73 | +2.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MPWR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MPWR has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +57.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2006 | Oct 2006 | 14 | 28.7% | +64.5% | +13154.2% |
| Oct 2006 | Jan 2007 | 10 | 11.4% | +116.6% | +14203.4% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2009 | 23 | 48.0% | +64.3% | +10722.4% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 3.3% | -12.0% | +8024.5% |
| Jul 2010 | Feb 2012 | 81 | 44.0% | -23.4% | +8001.4% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 11.0% | +136.1% | +157.4% |
| Average | 22 | — | +57.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPWR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) is currently 58.7% above its 200-week moving average of $767.57. It would need to fall to $767.57 to cross below the line.
What is MPWR's 200-week moving average price?
Monolithic Power Systems Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $767.57 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MPWR drops below its 200-week moving average?
MPWR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +57.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is MPWR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MPWR as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 26 (oversold). Free cash flow yield is 0.7%. Return on equity is 22.0%. Price-to-book is 15.4x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MPWR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 21 years, $100 invested in MPWR would have grown to $11117, compared to $931 for the S&P 500. That's 25.1% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. MPWR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MPWR pay a dividend?
Yes. Monolithic Power Systems Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 66.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18