MPWR
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. Technology - Semiconductors Investor Relations →
Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) closed at $1426.03 as of 2026-07-31, trading 94.2% above its 200-week moving average of $734.33. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 83.0% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 38, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.7x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.96 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1084 weeks of data, MPWR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times. On average, these episodes lasted 22 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MPWR at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +57.7%.
With a market cap of $70.1 billion, MPWR is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 22.0%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 19.1x book value.
Share count has increased 3.4% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 20.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MPWR would have grown to $13018, compared to $910 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 26.3% vs 11.2% for the index — confirming MPWR as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 52.3% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MPWR vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MPWR Crosses Below the Line?
Across 6 historical episodes, buying MPWR when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +58.0% after 12 months (median +112.0%), compared to +18.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +51.8% vs +14.2% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MPWR crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MPWR would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MPWR's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $1192.33 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $1298.15 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $1424.59 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $1578.31 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $1769.22 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MPWR's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MPWR has crossed below its 200-week MA 6 times with an average 1-year return of +57.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2006 | Oct 2006 | 14 | 28.7% | +64.5% | +15420.5% |
| Oct 2006 | Jan 2007 | 10 | 11.4% | +116.6% | +16649.1% |
| Oct 2008 | Mar 2009 | 23 | 48.0% | +64.3% | +12572.9% |
| Jun 2010 | Jul 2010 | 1 | 3.3% | -12.0% | +9413.7% |
| Jul 2010 | Feb 2012 | 81 | 44.0% | -23.4% | +9386.7% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 3 | 11.0% | +136.1% | +201.4% |
| Average | 22 | — | +57.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPWR below its 200-week moving average?
No. Monolithic Power Systems Inc. (MPWR) is currently 94.2% above its 200-week moving average of $734.33. It would need to fall to $734.33 to cross below the line.
What is MPWR's 200-week moving average price?
Monolithic Power Systems Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $734.33 as of 2026-07-31. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MPWR drops below its 200-week moving average?
MPWR has crossed below its 200-week moving average 6 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +57.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 22 weeks on average.
Is MPWR a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MPWR as of 2026-07-31: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 38. Return on equity is 22.0%. Price-to-book is 19.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MPWR compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 20.8 years, $100 invested in MPWR would have grown to $13018, compared to $910 for the S&P 500. That's 26.3% annualized vs 11.2% for the index. MPWR has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MPWR pay a dividend?
Yes. Monolithic Power Systems Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 56.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-07-31