MPC
Marathon Petroleum Corporation Energy - Refining Investor Relations →
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) closed at $203.00 as of 2026-02-02, trading 43.9% above its 200-week moving average of $141.11. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 25.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 55, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 715 weeks of data, MPC has crossed below its 200-week moving average 7 times. On average, these episodes lasted 13 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MPC at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +27.3%.
With a market cap of $61.0 billion, MPC is a large-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 24.3%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 3.6x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 45.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 13.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MPC would have grown to $1704, compared to $670 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 22.7% vs 14.7% for the index — confirming MPC as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Growth of $100: MPC vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MPC Crosses Below the Line?
Across 7 historical episodes, buying MPC when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +26.0% after 12 months (median +22.0%), compared to +22.0% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 57% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +82.9% vs +50.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MPC crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MPC has crossed below its 200-week MA 7 times with an average 1-year return of +27.3% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2012 | Jun 2012 | 1 | 5.1% | +139.4% | +1603.6% |
| Feb 2016 | Aug 2016 | 26 | 18.9% | +54.6% | +761.4% |
| Sep 2016 | Oct 2016 | 1 | 0.3% | +42.4% | +566.4% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 7 | 12.9% | -35.3% | +374.4% |
| Aug 2019 | Sep 2019 | 5 | 14.2% | -20.6% | +415.7% |
| Jan 2020 | Feb 2020 | 3 | 0.2% | -11.2% | +349.2% |
| Feb 2020 | Feb 2021 | 51 | 65.2% | +22.0% | +411.0% |
| Average | 13 | — | +27.3% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02