MPB
Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. Financial Services - Banks - Regional Investor Relations →
Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (MPB) closed at $33.54 as of 2026-06-19, trading 30.4% above its 200-week moving average of $25.73. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 33.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 62, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.5x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (0.93 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1441 weeks of data, MPB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks.
With a market cap of $850 million, MPB is a small-cap stock. Return on equity stands at 6.6%. The stock trades at 1.0x book value.
Share count has increased 45.1% over three years, indicating dilution.
Over the past 27.7 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MPB would have grown to $501, compared to $1041 for the S&P 500. MPB has returned 6.0% annualized vs 8.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MPB vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MPB Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying MPB when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -1.2% after 12 months (median -6.0%), compared to +13.5% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 41% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +5.6% vs +25.9% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MPB crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MPB would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MPB's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2026-03-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $31.37 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $32.37 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $33.44 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $34.59 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $35.82 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MPB's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MPB has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1998 | Feb 1999 | 14 | 12.4% | +21.2% | +459.2% |
| Apr 1999 | May 1999 | 7 | 2.0% | -22.9% | +393.8% |
| Jun 1999 | Sep 1999 | 14 | 5.6% | -17.3% | +402.3% |
| Dec 1999 | Feb 2002 | 113 | 40.8% | -28.9% | +398.9% |
| Apr 2002 | May 2002 | 5 | 1.7% | +20.8% | +464.1% |
| Jun 2002 | Aug 2002 | 8 | 0.5% | +34.2% | +468.8% |
| Apr 2007 | Apr 2007 | 2 | 2.2% | +45.5% | +232.1% |
| Dec 2008 | Dec 2008 | 1 | 2.9% | -33.6% | +184.2% |
| Jan 2009 | May 2009 | 19 | 9.7% | -46.4% | +176.9% |
| Jun 2009 | Dec 2012 | 184 | 65.8% | -41.8% | +220.9% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.2% | +26.6% | +89.5% |
| Feb 2019 | Feb 2019 | 1 | 1.4% | +12.0% | +88.5% |
| Aug 2019 | Aug 2019 | 3 | 8.3% | -8.0% | +80.4% |
| Jan 2020 | Mar 2021 | 57 | 33.6% | -5.7% | +71.9% |
| Apr 2023 | Dec 2023 | 35 | 22.1% | -14.7% | +55.3% |
| Jan 2024 | Jul 2024 | 27 | 17.8% | +21.9% | +57.3% |
| Mar 2025 | Apr 2025 | 2 | 3.0% | +37.5% | +43.5% |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPB below its 200-week moving average?
No. Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (MPB) is currently 30.4% above its 200-week moving average of $25.73. It would need to fall to $25.73 to cross below the line.
What is MPB's 200-week moving average price?
Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $25.73 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MPB drops below its 200-week moving average?
MPB has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is MPB a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MPB as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 62. Return on equity is 6.6%. Price-to-book is 1.0x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MPB compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 27.7 years, $100 invested in MPB would have grown to $501, compared to $1041 for the S&P 500. That's 6.0% annualized vs 8.8% for the index. MPB has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MPB pay a dividend?
Yes. Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 255.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19