MPAA
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) closed at $15.36 as of 2026-06-19, trading 55.1% above its 200-week moving average of $9.90. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 52.4% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 80, MPAA is in overbought territory.
Over the past 14 weeks, up-weeks have carried more volume than down-weeks (1.87 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). When trading picks up, it's more often on days the price is rising — buyers are showing more interest than sellers.
Over the past 1634 weeks of data, MPAA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 50 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -17.1%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $291 million, MPAA is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 0.2%. Return on equity stands at 4.7%. The stock trades at 1.1x book value.
Over the past 31.4 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MPAA would have grown to $208, compared to $2638 for the S&P 500. MPAA has returned 2.4% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been volatile over the past several years, making the quality of earnings harder to assess.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MPAA vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MPAA Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying MPAA when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of -16.0% after 12 months (median -18.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 27% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +3.3% vs +26.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MPAA crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MPAA would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MPAA's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report (date TBD — last report: 2025-12-31).
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $7.74 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $8.89 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $10.44 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $12.64 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $16.02 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MPAA's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MPAA has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +-17.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 1995 | Mar 1995 | 3 | 12.3% | +74.6% | +108.3% |
| Aug 1998 | May 2003 | 247 | 95.7% | -63.8% | +7.8% |
| Nov 2007 | Nov 2007 | 2 | 2.3% | -58.7% | +42.6% |
| Dec 2007 | Sep 2010 | 143 | 68.6% | -61.2% | +53.6% |
| Nov 2011 | Feb 2012 | 12 | 11.8% | -27.4% | +112.4% |
| Apr 2012 | Jun 2013 | 59 | 46.6% | -20.3% | +105.1% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 1 | 0.6% | +12.5% | -36.0% |
| Nov 2016 | Dec 2016 | 1 | 0.9% | +4.4% | -36.8% |
| Jun 2017 | Jun 2017 | 1 | 1.6% | -29.0% | -43.2% |
| Jul 2017 | Sep 2017 | 10 | 12.3% | -25.2% | -44.5% |
| Oct 2017 | Nov 2020 | 161 | 54.5% | -20.8% | -43.1% |
| Dec 2020 | Jan 2021 | 6 | 6.7% | -15.1% | -24.4% |
| Aug 2021 | Oct 2022 | 62 | 30.1% | -19.7% | -21.5% |
| Nov 2022 | May 2025 | 133 | 73.6% | -48.0% | -5.9% |
| Jun 2025 | Jun 2025 | 3 | 10.6% | +40.9% | +43.4% |
| Jul 2025 | Aug 2025 | 1 | 5.0% | N/A | +51.3% |
| Feb 2026 | Feb 2026 | 1 | 1.4% | N/A | +53.0% |
| Average | 50 | — | +-17.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MPAA below its 200-week moving average?
No. Motorcar Parts of America, Inc. (MPAA) is currently 55.1% above its 200-week moving average of $9.90. It would need to fall to $9.90 to cross below the line.
What is MPAA's 200-week moving average price?
Motorcar Parts of America, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $9.90 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MPAA drops below its 200-week moving average?
MPAA has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -17.1%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 50 weeks on average.
Is MPAA a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MPAA as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 80 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 0.2%. Return on equity is 4.7%. Price-to-book is 1.1x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MPAA compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 31.4 years, $100 invested in MPAA would have grown to $208, compared to $2638 for the S&P 500. That's 2.4% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. MPAA has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19