MOV
Movado Group, Inc. Consumer Cyclical - Luxury Goods Investor Relations →
Movado Group, Inc. (MOV) closed at $33.02 as of 2026-09-18, trading 50.3% above its 200-week moving average of $21.97. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from 49.3% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 30, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.21 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1672 weeks of data, MOV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times. On average, these episodes lasted 37 weeks. The average one-year return after crossing below was -1.0%, suggesting these dips have not historically been reliable buying opportunities for this stock.
With a market cap of $737 million, MOV is a small-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 7.3%, which is healthy. Return on equity stands at 8.4%. The stock trades at 1.5x book value.
This stock also meets the Yartseva multibagger criteria as a small-cap with strong free cash flow yield and reasonable book value.
Over the past 32.1 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MOV would have grown to $1667, compared to $2886 for the S&P 500. MOV has returned 9.2% annualized vs 11.0% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 4.2% compound annual rate, with 1 consecutive year of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MOV vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MOV Crosses Below the Line?
Across 17 historical episodes, buying MOV when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +3.4% after 12 months (median -5.0%), compared to +5.3% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 41% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +34.6% vs +23.8% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MOV crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MOV would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MOV's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-11-24.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $29.05 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $35.28 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $44.91 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $61.77 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $98.90 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | $0.35 | $0.53 | +50.4% |
| 2026-05-27 | $0.07 | $0.32 | +357.1% |
| 2026-03-19 | $0.54 | $0.57 | +5.6% |
| 2025-11-25 | $0.57 | $0.42 | -26.8% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MOV's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MOV has crossed below its 200-week MA 17 times with an average 1-year return of +-1.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1995 | Jun 1995 | 3 | 0.5% | +33.2% | +1685.8% |
| Jan 2000 | Mar 2002 | 111 | 60.3% | -26.7% | +543.7% |
| Aug 2002 | Dec 2002 | 15 | 18.5% | +32.3% | +559.3% |
| Feb 2003 | Feb 2003 | 1 | 2.2% | +48.8% | +579.3% |
| Mar 2003 | Mar 2003 | 1 | 0.0% | +69.9% | +568.3% |
| Jan 2008 | Jan 2008 | 1 | 1.9% | -59.8% | +165.7% |
| Feb 2008 | Aug 2008 | 23 | 20.4% | -69.8% | +195.3% |
| Sep 2008 | Sep 2008 | 1 | 1.9% | -43.1% | +153.6% |
| Sep 2008 | Apr 2011 | 131 | 76.8% | -34.2% | +188.5% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 1 | 2.2% | +79.5% | +269.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Oct 2011 | 9 | 24.0% | +65.0% | +297.4% |
| Nov 2014 | Mar 2015 | 20 | 20.5% | -16.7% | +98.0% |
| Apr 2015 | Oct 2017 | 131 | 38.9% | -6.3% | +71.6% |
| Nov 2017 | Nov 2017 | 1 | 1.0% | +47.5% | +81.0% |
| May 2019 | Mar 2021 | 95 | 67.0% | -58.1% | +85.2% |
| Apr 2024 | Apr 2024 | 2 | 1.3% | -43.5% | +55.3% |
| Jun 2024 | Jan 2026 | 83 | 48.2% | -35.7% | +49.3% |
| Average | 37 | — | +-1.0% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MOV below its 200-week moving average?
No. Movado Group, Inc. (MOV) is currently 50.3% above its 200-week moving average of $21.97. It would need to fall to $21.97 to cross below the line.
What is MOV's 200-week moving average price?
Movado Group, Inc.'s 200-week moving average is $21.97 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MOV drops below its 200-week moving average?
MOV has crossed below its 200-week moving average 17 times in our data. The average one-year return after these crossings was -1.0%, meaning the dips were not reliable buying signals for this particular stock. These episodes lasted 37 weeks on average.
Is MOV a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MOV as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 30. Free cash flow yield is 7.3%. Return on equity is 8.4%. Price-to-book is 1.5x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MOV compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 32.1 years, $100 invested in MOV would have grown to $1667, compared to $2886 for the S&P 500. That's 9.2% annualized vs 11.0% for the index. MOV has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MOV pay a dividend?
Yes. Movado Group, Inc. currently pays a dividend yield of 485.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18