MOS
The Mosaic Company Materials - Fertilizers Investor Relations →
The Mosaic Company (MOS) closed at $24.48 as of 2026-09-18, trading 17.6% below its 200-week moving average of $29.69. This places MOS in the extreme value zone. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from -15.4% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 58, indicating neutral momentum.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.06 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 1968 weeks of data, MOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 29 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MOS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.1%.
With a market cap of $7.8 billion, MOS is a mid-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at -5.1%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.4% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MOS would have grown to $176, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MOS has returned 1.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -100% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MOS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MOS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 30 historical episodes, buying MOS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.2% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +19.1% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.6% vs +41.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MOS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. MOS currently has negative free cash flow, so price-based dislocation levels are not available. The score still tracks yield deviation from baseline.
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | $0.14 | $0.13 | -5.9% |
| 2026-05-11 | $0.22 | $0.05 | -77.3% |
| 2026-02-24 | $0.47 | $0.22 | -53.0% |
| 2025-11-04 | $0.95 | $1.04 | +9.4% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
the write-ups I read Simply Wall St · Visual company reports and write-ups. Free tier covers five reports a month. referral
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MOS's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MOS has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +7.1% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1989 | Jul 1989 | 9 | 10.8% | -3.9% | +139.3% |
| Sep 1989 | Feb 1990 | 20 | 14.2% | -7.6% | +124.7% |
| Mar 1990 | Jul 1990 | 16 | 13.0% | +23.4% | +129.8% |
| Jul 1990 | Oct 1990 | 11 | 13.2% | +51.7% | +132.8% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 1 | 0.9% | +44.3% | +131.7% |
| Nov 1990 | Dec 1990 | 1 | 0.9% | +45.4% | +131.7% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 2.0% | +72.5% | +134.2% |
| Jul 1992 | Jul 1992 | 2 | 2.5% | -29.7% | +96.2% |
| Nov 1992 | Nov 1992 | 2 | 4.7% | -1.8% | +94.4% |
| Feb 1993 | Dec 1993 | 44 | 33.8% | +23.3% | +95.6% |
| Mar 1994 | Apr 1994 | 2 | 3.5% | +32.4% | +93.0% |
| Apr 1994 | Sep 1994 | 21 | 23.4% | +21.5% | +89.4% |
| Oct 1994 | Oct 1994 | 1 | 1.7% | +59.8% | +85.9% |
| Oct 1994 | Dec 1994 | 7 | 10.1% | +78.1% | +85.9% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 1 | 0.6% | -31.9% | +21.3% |
| Jan 1998 | Jan 1998 | 3 | 3.5% | -29.6% | +24.1% |
| Jun 1998 | Mar 2004 | 300 | 57.6% | -36.4% | +14.5% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 25 | 41.3% | +13.5% | -16.2% |
| Apr 2009 | May 2009 | 4 | 9.1% | +31.0% | -23.3% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 3 | 12.0% | +0.9% | -21.3% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 5.7% | +33.1% | -26.2% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 3 | 6.0% | +61.3% | -27.0% |
| Apr 2010 | Aug 2010 | 16 | 28.4% | +47.0% | -35.2% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 2 | 9.6% | -15.8% | -44.3% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 3 | 5.1% | -9.0% | -48.1% |
| Sep 2011 | Jul 2012 | 43 | 26.3% | +4.9% | -42.8% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 13 | 11.9% | -14.8% | -40.6% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 0.3% | -13.7% | -43.6% |
| Jun 2013 | Feb 2015 | 87 | 29.2% | -14.3% | -44.2% |
| Mar 2015 | Jul 2018 | 178 | 49.9% | -37.6% | -36.4% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 2 | 0.4% | -33.1% | -3.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.8% | -23.3% | -0.2% |
| Mar 2019 | Dec 2020 | 95 | 61.9% | -48.4% | +1.6% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 0.0% | -4.8% | -18.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.5% | -17.8% | -20.2% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 3 | 4.9% | -16.3% | -18.8% |
| Jan 2024 | Ongoing | 141+ | 36.2% | Ongoing | -18.5% |
| Average | 29 | — | +7.1% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MOS below its 200-week moving average?
Yes. As of 2026-09-18, The Mosaic Company (MOS) is trading 17.6% below its 200-week moving average of $29.69. The current price is $24.48.
What is MOS's 200-week moving average price?
The Mosaic Company's 200-week moving average is $29.69 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MOS drops below its 200-week moving average?
MOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +7.1%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 29 weeks on average.
Is MOS a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MOS as of 2026-09-18: The stock is below its 200-week moving average, which is the starting point for our analysis. The 14-week RSI is 58. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is -5.1%. Price-to-book is 0.7x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MOS compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MOS would have grown to $176, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 1.7% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MOS has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Does MOS pay a dividend?
Yes. The Mosaic Company currently pays a dividend yield of 359.00%.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18