MOS
The Mosaic Company Materials - Fertilizers Investor Relations →
The Mosaic Company (MOS) closed at $28.60 as of 2026-02-02, trading 17.1% below its 200-week moving average of $34.49. This places MOS in the extreme value zone. The stock moved further from the line this week, up from -20.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 54, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 1936 weeks of data, MOS has crossed below its 200-week moving average 37 times. On average, these episodes lasted 28 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MOS at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +7.0%.
With a market cap of $9.1 billion, MOS is a mid-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 2.1%. Return on equity stands at 10.1%. The stock trades at 0.7x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 14.0% over the past three years.
Over the past 33.2 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MOS would have grown to $200, compared to $2849 for the S&P 500. MOS has returned 2.1% annualized vs 10.6% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been declining at a -62.5% compound annual rate. A deteriorating cash flow trend warrants extra scrutiny — the stock may be cheap for a reason.
Growth of $100: MOS vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MOS Crosses Below the Line?
Across 30 historical episodes, buying MOS when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +0.3% after 12 months (median -7.0%), compared to +19.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 43% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +9.5% vs +41.0% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MOS crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Historical Touches
MOS has crossed below its 200-week MA 37 times with an average 1-year return of +7.0% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1989 | Jul 1989 | 9 | 10.8% | -3.9% | +172.2% |
| Sep 1989 | Feb 1990 | 20 | 14.2% | -7.6% | +155.6% |
| Mar 1990 | Jul 1990 | 16 | 13.0% | +23.4% | +161.3% |
| Jul 1990 | Oct 1990 | 11 | 13.2% | +51.7% | +164.8% |
| Nov 1990 | Nov 1990 | 1 | 0.8% | +44.3% | +163.6% |
| Nov 1990 | Dec 1990 | 1 | 0.9% | +45.4% | +163.6% |
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 2.0% | +72.5% | +166.4% |
| Jul 1992 | Jul 1992 | 2 | 2.4% | -29.7% | +123.2% |
| Nov 1992 | Nov 1992 | 2 | 4.7% | -1.8% | +121.1% |
| Feb 1993 | Dec 1993 | 44 | 33.8% | +23.3% | +122.5% |
| Mar 1994 | Apr 1994 | 2 | 3.5% | +32.4% | +119.5% |
| Apr 1994 | Sep 1994 | 21 | 23.4% | +21.5% | +115.4% |
| Oct 1994 | Oct 1994 | 1 | 1.7% | +59.8% | +111.4% |
| Oct 1994 | Dec 1994 | 7 | 10.0% | +78.1% | +111.4% |
| Dec 1997 | Dec 1997 | 1 | 0.6% | -32.1% | +38.0% |
| Jan 1998 | Jan 1998 | 3 | 3.5% | -29.6% | +41.2% |
| Jun 1998 | Mar 2004 | 300 | 57.6% | -36.4% | +30.2% |
| Sep 2008 | Mar 2009 | 25 | 41.3% | +13.5% | -4.7% |
| Apr 2009 | May 2009 | 4 | 9.1% | +31.0% | -12.8% |
| Jun 2009 | Jul 2009 | 3 | 12.0% | +0.9% | -10.5% |
| Sep 2009 | Oct 2009 | 1 | 5.7% | +33.1% | -16.0% |
| Oct 2009 | Nov 2009 | 3 | 6.0% | +61.3% | -17.0% |
| Apr 2010 | Aug 2010 | 16 | 28.4% | +47.0% | -26.3% |
| Jun 2011 | Jun 2011 | 2 | 9.6% | -15.8% | -36.7% |
| Aug 2011 | Aug 2011 | 3 | 5.1% | -9.3% | -40.9% |
| Sep 2011 | Jul 2012 | 43 | 26.3% | +4.9% | -35.0% |
| Oct 2012 | Dec 2012 | 13 | 11.9% | -14.8% | -32.4% |
| Apr 2013 | Apr 2013 | 1 | 0.3% | -13.7% | -35.9% |
| Jun 2013 | Feb 2015 | 87 | 29.5% | -14.3% | -36.5% |
| Mar 2015 | Jul 2018 | 178 | 49.9% | -38.0% | -27.4% |
| Aug 2018 | Aug 2018 | 2 | 0.3% | -33.1% | +9.6% |
| Dec 2018 | Dec 2018 | 1 | 0.8% | -23.3% | +13.5% |
| Mar 2019 | Dec 2020 | 95 | 61.9% | -48.5% | +15.7% |
| May 2023 | Jun 2023 | 1 | 0.6% | -4.3% | -6.6% |
| Oct 2023 | Oct 2023 | 1 | 2.5% | -17.8% | -9.3% |
| Oct 2023 | Nov 2023 | 3 | 4.9% | -16.3% | -7.6% |
| Jan 2024 | Ongoing | 109+ | 36.2% | Ongoing | -7.3% |
| Average | 28 | — | +7.0% | — |
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of Friday close, 2026-02-02