MOD
Modine Manufacturing Company Consumer Cyclical - Auto Parts Investor Relations →
Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) closed at $188.72 as of 2026-09-18, trading 73.8% above its 200-week moving average of $108.59. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 75.7% last week. The 14-week RSI sits at 33, indicating neutral momentum.
Over the past 14 weeks, down-weeks have had more trading volume than up-weeks (0.66 buyers-vs-sellers ratio). That means when people are active, they're more often selling than buying. Sellers are still more in control than buyers.
Over the past 2247 weeks of data, MOD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times. On average, these episodes lasted 21 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MOD at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +2.7%.
With a market cap of $10.0 billion, MOD is a large-cap stock. Free cash flow yield is currently negative, meaning the company is burning cash. Return on equity stands at 13.1%. The stock trades at 8.3x book value.
Over the past 33.8 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MOD would have grown to $1554, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. MOD has returned 8.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index, underperforming the broader market over this period.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 22.9% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MOD vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MOD Crosses Below the Line?
Across 34 historical episodes, buying MOD when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +2.6% after 12 months (median -13.0%), compared to +9.8% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 38% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +42.9% vs +23.7% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MOD crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MOD would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MOD's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-10-27.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $175.13 | Unusually cheap — analysis point |
| Value | +1σ | $202.53 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $240.08 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $294.73 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $381.58 | Unusually expensive — analysis point |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Recent Earnings
| Date | EPS Est. | EPS Actual | Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29 | $1.27 | $1.53 | +20.0% |
| 2026-05-26 | $1.55 | $1.71 | +10.0% |
| 2026-02-04 | $0.99 | $1.19 | +19.7% |
| 2025-10-28 | $1.01 | $1.06 | +5.0% |
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
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Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are analysis points: prices at which the yield deviation becomes unusual enough to justify the work. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MOD's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. Each one is an analysis point, a reason to open the filings. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MOD has crossed below its 200-week MA 35 times with an average 1-year return of +2.7% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 1991 | Jan 1991 | 1 | 0.1% | +54.5% | +3684.6% |
| Dec 1995 | Jan 1996 | 2 | 0.7% | +6.8% | +1093.5% |
| Jan 1996 | Jan 1996 | 1 | 1.4% | +15.4% | +1093.5% |
| Feb 1996 | Mar 1996 | 2 | 8.1% | +25.4% | +1165.6% |
| Jun 1996 | Jun 1996 | 1 | 1.8% | +22.3% | +1043.6% |
| Oct 1996 | Dec 1996 | 9 | 7.6% | +38.4% | +992.1% |
| Jan 1997 | Jan 1997 | 1 | 3.7% | +36.2% | +1006.0% |
| Mar 1997 | May 1997 | 8 | 6.7% | +32.0% | +952.6% |
| Aug 1998 | Aug 1998 | 1 | 0.5% | +9.7% | +836.6% |
| Sep 1998 | Oct 1998 | 3 | 6.8% | -14.6% | +853.3% |
| Jan 1999 | Mar 1999 | 5 | 12.8% | -15.5% | +825.3% |
| Mar 1999 | Apr 1999 | 5 | 5.9% | -13.8% | +822.4% |
| Sep 1999 | Aug 2000 | 48 | 26.9% | +10.3% | +831.8% |
| Oct 2000 | Oct 2000 | 3 | 3.4% | -9.0% | +812.2% |
| Nov 2000 | Apr 2001 | 24 | 25.6% | -21.1% | +808.1% |
| May 2001 | Jun 2001 | 7 | 9.9% | +15.6% | +886.1% |
| Aug 2001 | Aug 2001 | 1 | 2.2% | -19.3% | +811.9% |
| Sep 2001 | Feb 2002 | 22 | 22.9% | -18.7% | +802.4% |
| Apr 2002 | Apr 2002 | 1 | 2.1% | -34.9% | +844.6% |
| Jun 2002 | Aug 2003 | 62 | 40.2% | -8.1% | +870.8% |
| May 2006 | Jan 2007 | 34 | 15.2% | -2.9% | +732.3% |
| Feb 2007 | Aug 2007 | 23 | 16.3% | -46.5% | +735.1% |
| Oct 2007 | Oct 2010 | 158 | 96.0% | -59.9% | +737.6% |
| Aug 2011 | Jun 2013 | 98 | 42.0% | -43.6% | +1573.0% |
| Oct 2014 | Oct 2014 | 1 | 1.0% | -22.3% | +1548.2% |
| Jun 2015 | Sep 2016 | 64 | 41.3% | -8.9% | +1649.0% |
| Oct 2016 | Nov 2016 | 5 | 19.3% | +89.9% | +1631.4% |
| Feb 2017 | Apr 2017 | 11 | 13.7% | +96.6% | +1513.0% |
| Oct 2018 | Jan 2019 | 16 | 25.6% | -19.2% | +1353.9% |
| Mar 2019 | Apr 2019 | 2 | 4.1% | -76.2% | +1316.8% |
| May 2019 | Jun 2019 | 7 | 8.7% | -68.5% | +1316.8% |
| Jul 2019 | Jan 2021 | 75 | 78.9% | -50.9% | +1604.8% |
| Jan 2021 | Feb 2021 | 1 | 5.4% | -28.8% | +1403.7% |
| Aug 2021 | May 2022 | 40 | 31.0% | +31.8% | +1376.7% |
| Jun 2022 | Jul 2022 | 4 | 4.6% | +193.8% | +1688.8% |
| Average | 21 | — | +2.7% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MOD below its 200-week moving average?
No. Modine Manufacturing Company (MOD) is currently 73.8% above its 200-week moving average of $108.59. It would need to fall to $108.59 to cross below the line.
What is MOD's 200-week moving average price?
Modine Manufacturing Company's 200-week moving average is $108.59 as of 2026-09-18. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MOD drops below its 200-week moving average?
MOD has crossed below its 200-week moving average 35 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +2.7%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 21 weeks on average.
Is MOD a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MOD as of 2026-09-18: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 33. Free cash flow is currently negative. Return on equity is 13.1%. Price-to-book is 8.3x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MOD compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.8 years, $100 invested in MOD would have grown to $1554, compared to $3167 for the S&P 500. That's 8.5% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MOD has underperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-09-18