MNST
Monster Beverage Corporation Consumer Staples - Beverages Investor Relations →
Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) closed at $91.34 as of 2026-06-19, trading 55.5% above its 200-week moving average of $58.74. The stock is currently moving closer to the line, down from 58.7% last week. With a 14-week RSI of 73, MNST is in overbought territory.
Trading volume is running at 1.4x of its 14-week average, which is in the normal range. The balance between buying and selling volume (1.04 ratio) is neutral — neither side is clearly dominating.
Over the past 2066 weeks of data, MNST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times. On average, these episodes lasted 24 weeks. Historically, investors who bought MNST at the start of these episodes saw an average one-year return of +24.8%.
With a market cap of $89.3 billion, MNST is a large-cap stock. The company generates a free cash flow yield of 1.9%. Return on equity stands at 26.7%, indicating strong profitability. The stock trades at 10.2x book value.
The company has been aggressively buying back shares, reducing its share count by 6.4% over the past three years. MNST passes our Buffett quality screen: high return on equity, low debt, and positive free cash flow.
Over the past 33.5 years, a hypothetical investment of $100 in MNST would have grown to $206320, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That represents an annualized return of 25.6% vs 10.8% for the index — confirming MNST as a market-beating investment and the kind of quality company where buying during 200-week moving average touches has historically been rewarded.
Free cash flow has been growing at a 42.2% compound annual rate, with 4 consecutive years of positive cash generation.
Business Health
Annual financials — how the underlying business has performed over the past several years.
Cash Flow Free cash flow & net income ($M)
Revenue Annual revenue ($M) — business growth proxy
Total Debt Balance sheet debt ($M)
ROIC Return on invested capital (%)
FCF Yield Free cash flow / market cap (%) — Yartseva signal
Gross Margin Pricing power & competitive moat (%)
Shares Outstanding Buybacks vs dilution (millions)
Growth of $100: MNST vs S&P 500
Monthly data normalized to $100 at start. Vertical dashed lines mark 200-week MA touches.
What Happens After MNST Crosses Below the Line?
Across 24 historical episodes, buying MNST when it crossed below its 200-week moving average produced an average return of +25.2% after 12 months (median +19.0%), compared to +11.2% for the S&P 500 over the same periods. 67% of those episodes were profitable after one year. After 24 months, the average return was +129.8% vs +29.4% for the index.
Each line shows $100 invested at the moment MNST crossed below its 200-week MA. Bold blue = stock average. Gray dashed = S&P 500 average over same periods.
Bean Score Experimental
The Bean Score measures how far a stock's free cash flow yield has deviated from its own quarterly baseline, normalized by the stock's historical behavior. Between earnings dates, FCF is constant — so the score is purely a function of stock price. The levels below show at what prices MNST would reach each dislocation threshold.
Dislocation Price Levels
Prices where MNST's Bean Score would hit each σ threshold. Valid until next earnings report: 2026-08-06.
| Level | σ | Price | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Deep Value | +2σ | $67.26 | Unusually cheap — potential buy zone |
| Value | +1σ | $71.99 | Cheap vs. own history |
| Fair Value | +0σ | $77.42 | Historical mean behavior |
| Expensive | -1σ | $83.75 | Expensive vs. own history |
| Deep Expensive | -2σ | $91.20 | Unusually expensive — potential trim zone |
Quarterly FCF & Yield Trailing twelve-month free cash flow and yield at each quarter end
Signal Accuracy Collecting Data
The Bean Score system is accumulating weekly data to validate signal accuracy. After 13+ weeks of history, this section will display win rates and average returns for each σ threshold crossing — answering the question: "When this score says cheap or expensive, does the price subsequently move in the expected direction?"
Theoretical framework — not backtested or forward-tested. The Bean Score uses trailing twelve-month free cash flow yield as a dislocation identifier. It measures whether the market has pushed a stock's yield unusually far from its own baseline behavior. These levels are reference points for identifying potential swing trade opportunities, not buy/sell signals. FCF values update quarterly with earnings; between reports, all movement is price-driven.
Dislocation Scores Experimental
Each score measures deviation from MNST's own historical baseline — the same idea as the Bean Score, applied to different fundamentals. Positive means cheaper or more dislocated than this stock's norm. Scores marked σ are normalized by the stock's own variability; pp values are simple deltas from its recent baseline.
Theoretical framework — not backtested. These scores describe how unusual today's readings are for this specific company. They are starting points for research, not buy or sell signals. Annual-statement scores (buyback, accruals, FCF vs history) rest on only ~4 yearly data points and are deltas, not sigmas.
Historical Touches
MNST has crossed below its 200-week MA 26 times with an average 1-year return of +24.8% after recovery.
| Crossed Below | Recovered | Weeks | Max Depth | 1-Year Return | Return Since Touch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 1986 | May 1990 | 184 | 83.7% | -60.0% | +137078.7% |
| Jun 1990 | Mar 1992 | 92 | 57.3% | -46.5% | +267824.4% |
| Mar 1992 | Jul 1992 | 15 | 40.9% | +14.3% | +333940.4% |
| Aug 1992 | Sep 1992 | 1 | 7.6% | +33.3% | +389609.0% |
| Oct 1993 | Nov 1993 | 5 | 11.6% | +10.5% | +369099.7% |
| Jan 1994 | Jan 1994 | 1 | 3.5% | -27.5% | +350641.1% |
| Jan 1994 | Feb 1994 | 4 | 2.6% | -36.6% | +342087.1% |
| May 1994 | May 1994 | 1 | 3.4% | -43.6% | +359633.8% |
| Jun 1994 | Jun 1994 | 2 | 15.6% | -38.2% | +412549.6% |
| Oct 1994 | Sep 1997 | 151 | 74.6% | -50.0% | +350641.1% |
| Jan 1998 | Feb 1998 | 2 | 2.8% | +216.0% | +561094.4% |
| Nov 2000 | Dec 2000 | 4 | 7.7% | +10.3% | +241796.2% |
| Feb 2001 | Dec 2001 | 44 | 23.5% | +11.7% | +241796.2% |
| Jan 2002 | Oct 2002 | 39 | 16.3% | +3.8% | +208677.1% |
| Nov 2002 | Nov 2002 | 2 | 0.9% | +109.5% | +208677.1% |
| Feb 2003 | May 2003 | 14 | 12.3% | +148.9% | +218568.5% |
| Jun 2008 | Aug 2008 | 6 | 19.8% | +19.5% | +4240.9% |
| Aug 2008 | Sep 2008 | 3 | 16.2% | +19.4% | +3888.6% |
| Oct 2008 | Dec 2008 | 10 | 28.9% | +48.9% | +4316.1% |
| Jun 2009 | Sep 2009 | 16 | 16.9% | +22.4% | +3287.1% |
| Nov 2009 | Dec 2009 | 6 | 4.1% | +49.6% | +3080.7% |
| Dec 2018 | Jan 2019 | 3 | 5.7% | +32.5% | +278.8% |
| Mar 2020 | Apr 2020 | 3 | 6.5% | +68.8% | +250.6% |
| Jun 2024 | Jun 2024 | 1 | 1.4% | +31.3% | +90.2% |
| Aug 2024 | Sep 2024 | 5 | 6.2% | +40.4% | +98.3% |
| Jan 2025 | Feb 2025 | 6 | 6.9% | +55.5% | +83.6% |
| Average | 24 | — | +24.8% | — |
Frequently Asked Questions
Is MNST below its 200-week moving average?
No. Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) is currently 55.5% above its 200-week moving average of $58.74. It would need to fall to $58.74 to cross below the line.
What is MNST's 200-week moving average price?
Monster Beverage Corporation's 200-week moving average is $58.74 as of 2026-06-19. This is the average weekly closing price over roughly the last 4 years, and it acts as a long-term trend line. When a stock drops below this level, it can signal that the price has fallen far enough from the long-term trend to attract value-oriented investors.
What happens when MNST drops below its 200-week moving average?
MNST has crossed below its 200-week moving average 26 times in our data. On average, buying at that moment produced a one-year return of +24.8%. These dips have historically been decent entry points. These episodes lasted 24 weeks on average.
Is MNST a good value right now?
Here's what our data says about MNST as of 2026-06-19: The stock is above its 200-week moving average, so it doesn't currently meet our primary signal. The 14-week RSI is 73 (overbought). Free cash flow yield is 1.9%. Return on equity is 26.7%. Price-to-book is 10.2x. This is not a buy or sell recommendation — always do your own research.
How does MNST compare to the S&P 500?
Over the past 33.5 years, $100 invested in MNST would have grown to $206320, compared to $3097 for the S&P 500. That's 25.6% annualized vs 10.8% for the index. MNST has outperformed the broader market over this period.
Not financial advice. This is an educational tool. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Do your own research before making investment decisions.
Data as of week of 2026-06-19